000
AGXX40 KNHC 291802
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
202 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES PREVAILS OVER THE SE U.S. WITH SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
JUST N OF THE GULF WATERS WHILE A TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE SW GULF
OF MEXICO. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA N OF 22N WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE
CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AROUND THE
TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF N OF
22N AND 3-5 FT OVER THE SW GULF WHILE SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE
PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN GULF.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF WATERS WHILE
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WED. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW GULF WATERS AND
STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT
EASTWARD ON THU ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST
ON THU EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM SW LOUISIANA TO SE TEXAS
BY FRI MORNING...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NE MEXICO EARLY
SAT...AND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO BY SAT NIGHT. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER
THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 5-7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE IN E SWELL IN
THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS ON WED...THEN MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH THU.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WEAK 1016 MB LOW PRES NEAR 29N65W TO THE
SE BAHAMAS WHILE A REINFORCING FRONT RESULTING FROM A SHORT WAVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRES CENTER TO
CENTRAL CUBA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS W OF
THE REINFORCING FRONT WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE E OF THE
BAHAMAS EXCEPT 3-4 FT OVER THE NW WATERS WHILE SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE PREVAIL W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD...MOVING E OF THE AREA BY THU. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE SAT.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.