000
AGXX40 KNHC 271806
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
206 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A 1022 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA SUPPORTS A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE SE AND S CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. AS A RESULT...LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND A FEW SHIP
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITH ISOLATED WIND BARBS
OF 30 KT PERSISTING OVER REGION...PARTICULARLY FROM 21N TO 24N
BETWEEN 85W AND 94W. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY 9-11 FT
PER SHIP OBSERVATIONS.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH
FURTHER INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. ANOTHER HIGH PRES
BUILDING OVER THE CAROLINAS TUE INTO WED WILL ALLOW E WINDS TO
INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE SE AND S-CENTRAL GULF...INCLUDING THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WITH FRESH SE RETURN FLOW STARTING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE LATEST OSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES SHOWED NE TO E WINDS OF 15-20
KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 6 FT PER BUOYS
42056 AND 42057 LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. A SHEAR LINE PERSISTS
EXTENDING E TO W FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NEAR 19N87W. SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHEAR-LINE
FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE/
TROUGH IS ALONG 71W FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS
TO 8 FT PER BUOY 42059 LOCATED NEAR 15N67.5W. THE TROUGH WILL
ENTER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON WHILE DISSIPATING.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH BUILDING
SEAS TO 9 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY TUE.

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO BE A
VIGOROUS AND WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG
50W THAT WILL MOVE W OF 55W TONIGHT...THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
BY LATE MON...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE TUE...AND THROUGH THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER
DATA ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE.
THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS BETWEEN 55W AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MON INTO TUE. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN DUE IN PART TO WEAKER RIDGING TO THE N AND THE
INTERRUPTION IN THE ATLC FETCH THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N66W TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL
CUBA. WHILE THE FRONT LOSES DEFINITION THROUGH TODAY AS IT SHIFTS
EAST...BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES PUSHES
ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY/TROUGH ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN NE FLORIDA
AND BERMUDA BY TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO STALL AND
WEAKEN FROM BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE MON. 

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE WAKE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AS PRES
GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE N WATERS DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...WINDS OF 15-20 ARE STILL NOTED
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS
THE HIGH PRES BUILDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLC THROUGH MIDWEEK...ALLOWING A GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEAS APPROACHING 8 FT OUTSIDE
OF THE BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.