000 AGXX40 KNHC 270752 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 352 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1024 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE AL/GA/FL BORDER AREA THIS MORNING...SUPPORTING A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 0330 UTC INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF S OF 26N. EARLIER DATA SHOWED THAT THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS HAS BEEN DECREASING FROM WHAT IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...DUE THE FACT THAT THE HIGH PRES IS WEAKENING. JUDGING FROM BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER ALTIMETER DATA...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY PUSHING 9 FT IN THE S CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF. THE TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED...WITH ONLY MODERATE WINDS NOTED. GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH FURTHER INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. RESURGENT HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE CAROLINAS TUE INTO WED WILL ALLOW E WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...WITH FRESH SE RETURN FLOW STARTING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0330 UTC INDICATED NE TO E WINDS TO 25 KT JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND 15 KT NE TO E WINDS DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH WITHIN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THE 10 KT DIFFERENTIAL IN WIND SPEED ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DEFINES A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING E TO W FROM WESTERN CUBA TO NE YUCATAN. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED FARTHER SOUTH...FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS...WITH WINDS TO 20 KT OBSERVED IN THE GULF HONDURAS PER THE SAME ASCAT PASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM GRAND CAYMAN TO BELIZE AS WELL. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0144 UTC INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE/TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NW VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH...ENHANCED IN PART BY A PERSISTENT UPPER CYCLONE THAT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH FROM HISPANIOLA TO NW VENEZUELA SINCE FRI. THE FRESH TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE MAINTAINING SEAS 8 TO 9 FT...AS NOTED BY BUOY 42059 NEAR 15N67.5W. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THROUGH MID WEEK KEEPS MODEST RIDGING N OF THE AREA...INTERACTING WITH A VIGOROUS AND WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL MOVE W OF 55W TONIGHT...THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY LATE MON...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE TUE...AND THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER DATA HAVE BEEN SHOWING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND SEAS 8 TO 11 FT WITH FROM 10N TO 20N ALONG THIS TROPICAL WAVE...AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT SHOWING THESE CONDITIONS MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 55W AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MON INTO TUE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLIGHTLY LESS AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN DUE IN PART TO WEAKER RIDGING TO THE N AND THE INTERRUPTION IN THE ATLC FETCH THROUGH THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED FROM 31N66W TO CENTRAL CUBA APPEARS ON THE 06 UTC ANALYSIS. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET COUPLED WITH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOWERING SURFACE PRES ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 30N66W...VERIFYING SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AMONG ALL MAJOR MODELS OF A WEAK LOW PRES ARE FORMING THIS MORNING AND LIFTING NE NEAR BERMUDA LATER TODAY. WHILE THE FRONT LOSES DEFINITION THROUGH TODAY AS IT SHIFTS EAST...BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES PUSHES ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY/TROUGH ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN NE FLORIDA AND BERMUDA BY TONIGHT...DESTINED TO STALL AND WEAKEN FROM BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE MON. THE PASSAGE OF THIS WEAK BOUNDARY IS BREAKING UP THE RIDGING N OF THE BAHAMAS...ALLOWING THE 20 TO 25 NE WINDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FROM THE NW BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA TO DIMINISH E OF 80W. HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL MAINTAIN NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT HOWEVER ACROSS CAY SAL THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO MON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE HIGH PRES BUILDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH MIDWEEK...ALLOWING A GRADUALLY INCREASE IN NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEAS APPROACHING 8 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.