000 AGXX40 KNHC 260754 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 354 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ASCAT AND BUOY DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS CONTINUED TO INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AT BUOY 42055 NEAR 20N94W WERE PEAKING AT 12 FT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...CONSISTENT WITH THE LONG FETCH AND DURATION OF THE 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THE HIGHER WINDS IS A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WELL TO THE NORTH...AND TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ONE ONGOING ISSUE IS THE PROSPECTS FOR NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF VERACRUZ STATE IN THE FAR SW GULF. A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM YESTERDAY ALONG WITH A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM YESTERDAY EVENING INDICATED NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST HAD INCREASED TO GALE FORCE. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE A RESULT OF THE NE TO E FLOW ACROSS THE GULF FUNNELING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF VERACRUZ. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL...AND THE FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE GUIDANCE SHOWING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THIS AREA THROUGH TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE HIGH PRES WEAKEN AS IT DIGS SE TOWARD N FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES E THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STRONG NE TO E WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE SOUTHER GULF THROUGH SAT...WITH THE NW TO N WINDS OFF VERACRUZ TO FOLLOW. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE STATES AGAIN MON INTO TUE...ALLOWING FOR A WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE SE AND S CENTRAL GULF BY LATE MON...WITH FRESH SE RETURN FLOW INTO THE TEXAS COAST BY TUE. NE TO E WINDS MAY REACH 25 KT THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATING WINDS TO 25 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC E OF 75W...WITH WINDS TO 25 KT OFF NW VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE REACHING 9 FT AT BUOY 42059 NEAR 15N67W...SO AT LEAST 10 FT IN LIKELY FARTHER SOUTH. THE STRONG FLOW IS FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW SOME HINT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA...BUT IT IS CLEAR THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DAMPEN OUT AS IT PASSES INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SUPPORTING ANY IMPULSES MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT SUPPRESSING THEM AS THEY PASS INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE DRY SUBSIDENT AIR BETWEEN 75W AND 80W ARE NOTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE SUN...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SUN INTO MON. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W OF 55W BY MON AND INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY LATE MON...ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO CENTRAL CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION SE OF THE FRONT AND N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED S OF 26N W OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS...WITH 7-9 FT SEAS JUST W OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE TODAY. ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN...THEN SAG S OF 31N THROUGH LATE SUN BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS OR SEAS IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.