000 AGXX40 KNHC 250801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 401 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THEN SW THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 18N94W. A 1022 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF IS DISSIPATING AHEAD OF REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE GULF COAST. A STRONG 1028 MB HIGH PRES FOLLOWS THE REINFORCING FRONT. THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES OVER NORTH AMERICA AND LOWER PRES OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...S OF 25N. PEAK WINDS TO 27 KT AND SEAS TO 10 FT HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT BUOY 42055 NEAR 22N94W. A 0226 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS TO 25 KT OVER THE SE GULF. A 0408 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NW TO N WINDS TO 30 KT OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF VERACRUZ DUE TO FUNNELING EFFECTS. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT...MAINTAINING THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN LATE SAT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UKMET ALONG WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NE GULF MON...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT INCREASE OF E WINDS INTO TUE...WITH FRESH SE RETURN FLOW INTO THE TEXAS COAST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. JUDGING FROM BUOY AND ALTIMETER INPUT...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE PROBABLY PEAKING AROUND 7 FT CURRENTLY IN THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS...BUT SEAS ARE BUILDING IN THE PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG FLOW. THE INCREASED TRADE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SAGGING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING OFF NORTH AMERICA. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO N CENTRAL COLOMBIA. THIS IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IN THE WATERS S OF HAITI AND JAMAICA. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS WELL RESOLVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO AMPLIFYING A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN S OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WAVE WILL TRACK W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT...THEN WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN ON SUN. MEANWHILE A WEAK TROUGH N OF GUYANA WILL DRIFT NW TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SAT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THESE IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE BASIN LATE SUN INTO MON AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PASSING 55W MON AND THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE. WAVEWATCH OUTPUT SHOWS AN ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF 8 TO 12 FT SEAS MOVING INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W LATE MON INTO TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO NW CUBA...BREAKING A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA TO 27N55W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A COLOCATED UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE NOTED S OF 27N W OF 73W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS AIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN A LINE FROM NE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 26N74W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE SAT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN...THEN SAG S OF 31N THROUGH LATE SUN BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS OR SEAS IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.