000 AGXX40 KNHC 231828 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 228 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF. THERE ARE TWO COLD FRONTS...THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN ONE EXTENDING FROM SW FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS THROUGH 24N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W. LIGHT TO MODERATE W-NW WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ARE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IS STARTING TO PROPAGATE OUT AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE S OF 21N W OF 94W/W OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH SEAS TO AT LEAST 13 FT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE LATEST MWW3 AS INDICATED BY 10 FT SEAS AT BUOY 42055 NEAR 22N94W. THE GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING... DIMINISHING JUST BELOW GALE AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE THU. THE LATEST SREF PROBABILITIES OF GALE INDICATE LESS THAN 0 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES BY 03Z TONIGHT. MEANWHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...EXCEPT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS NOT FAR BEHIND REACHING FROM NEAR OCALA FLORIDA THROUGH 26N90W TO 22N98W. DRIER AIR IS SPILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S AT BUOYS/PLATFORMS S OF LOUISIANA ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES. THESE TWO FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MERGE INTO ONE FRONT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE TRAILING FRONT SPEEDS UP AND OVERTAKES THE FIRST FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE MERGED FRONT FRI INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT JUST SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PORTIONS OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS SE UP ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-10 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WHERE FETCH WILL BE THE GREATEST FRI THROUGH SAT... DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY SUN AND MON AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND RETREATS TOWARD THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. OVERALL A WEAK PRES PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL TRADE WINDS AND SEAS. AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 83W IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ALL REMAINING DEFINITION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...SUPPORTED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT. SCATTERED TSTMS IS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM W OF THIS FEATURE WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. THE PRES PATTERN WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY ON THU ALLOWING FOR WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO BE MAINLY FRESH...DIMINISHING TO MAINLY MODERATE BASIN WIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALSO OF NOTE...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATER TONIGHT...STALLING JUST N OF THE CHANNEL THU THROUGH FRI...BEFORE REACHING ALONG 20N BY SAT MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. FRESH WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED NEAR 55W/56W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS ARE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH A SURGE OF FRESH STRONG WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THU THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL BACK TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS) AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED WITHIN 360 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N ALONG WITH SEAS TO 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MERGE WITH A TRAILING REINFORCING FRONT THROUGH THU...WITH THE MERGED BOUNDARY REACHING FROM 31N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY THU MORNING...THEN STALLING IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL MANAGE TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS BEYOND 65W BY SAT MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL SET UP W OF THE FRONT S OF 27N FRI THROUGH SAT...DIMINISHING SUN THROUGH MON. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN...EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N69W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS STILL BY MON MORNING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.