000
AGXX40 KNHC 150605
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WINDS GENTLE
TO MODERATE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND 1-2 FT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS
COAST INTO THE NW GULF WED. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NE MEXICO BY THU EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS PROGRESS ACROSS THE GULF AND BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF WHILE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY FRI.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS LOCATED IN THE E PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXCEPT THE
SW CARIBBEAN WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN
THE 4-5 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN AND 3-4 FT
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC SEAS ARE IN THE
5-7 FT RANGE IN E SWELL. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE AFFECT ON
WINDS AND SEAS. THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WILL
MOVE SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THU
NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N69W TO THE SE BAHAMAS WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS JUST TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH AND LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN
THE 4-5 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE WEEK THEN
IS EXPECTED DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.