000
AGXX40 KNHC 141808
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
208 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4
FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND 1-3 FT OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK ENABLING A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW GULF WATERS
WED. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS REACHING FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NE MEXICO BY THU EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH
HELPING PROVIDE PUSH FOR THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT OUT AND THE
FRONT WILL SLOW ITS PROGRESS ACROSS THE GULF BY THE WEEKS END. BY
FRIDAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WHILE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
GULF.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS LOCATED EAST OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN... AND
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN AND 3-4 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N
ATLC...SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE IN PRIMARILY E SWELL. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE AFFECT ON WINDS AND SEAS. THE TROUGH
E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL MOVE INTO THESE WATERS TUE
NIGHT THEN SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY
THU NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL LIKELY DAMPEN OUT BY WEEKS END.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS JUST TO THE E OF THE TROUGH
AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT W OF THE
BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE
WEEK THEN IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN OUT BY WEEKS END AS A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.