000
AGXX40 KNHC 080745
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
345 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
GOOD CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE. 
AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0320 UTC SHOWED 25-30 KT WINDS 
ALONG THE MEXICO COAST S OF 20N...WHICH VERIFIES WELL WITH GFS 
AND SREF MODEL FORECAST. BUOY DATA INDICATE 4-6 FT SEAS WITHIN 
120 NM N OF THE FRONT...BUT SEAS ARE PROBABLY 7-8 FT NEAR THE 
COAST COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME 
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. DOMINANT HIGH PRES 
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. SLY RETURN 
FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NW GULF FRI AND SAT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
GOOD CONFIDENCE.

WEAK HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE 
WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUE. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING 
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW E WINDS TO STRENGTHEN IN THE 
S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI. 6-7 FT LONG PERIOD NE 
SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS 
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NE PORTION OF THE TROP N ATLC THU...AND 
SUBSIDE TO 5-6 FT AS IT SPREADS SOUTHWARD BY SAT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
GOOD CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRES NEAR JACKSONVILLE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER AROUND 30N80W 
THROUGH FRI AS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS FLORIDA WEAKENS 
AND BECOMES DIFFUSE THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THIS LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL 
PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF S GEORGIA... 
AND SEAS TO 6-7 FT IN FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH 
THU. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM 31N77W TO 
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.