000
AGXX40 KNHC 071819
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
219 PM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
GOOD CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED NLY WINDS OF
20-30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN TAMPICO
AND VERACRUZ WHERE SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 FT. THE FRONT WILL
REACH FROM N FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT...THEN
WEAKEN AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TUE. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MEXICAN
COAST...S OF TAMPICO THROUGH TONIGHT. NLY WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5
FT WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS BY TUE EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRI. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE NW GULF BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
GOOD CONFIDENCE.

WEAK HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE 
WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUE. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING 
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW E WINDS TO STRENGTHEN IN THE 
S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
GOOD CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N66W TO A 1013 MB LOW PRES
LOCATED NEAR 24N65.5 TO 21N68W. THE LOW WILL DRIFT IN NW WHILE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT INTO TUE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG E-SE
WINDS IN THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING E IS WEAKENING THE
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH N FLORIDA COAST BY TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN AND BECOME STATIONARY
FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE AND WED. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA WILL ALLOW THE DISSIPATING
FRONT TO SAG A LITTLE FARTHER S THU AND FRI. STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA WED AND THU...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 6-7 FT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.