000
AGXX40 KNHC 041905
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
305 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL TRACK FOR KAREN BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS 
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND NWPS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES OF UKMET/EMCWF VS GFS ON KAREN TRACK.

T.S. KAREN CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED DUE TO STRONG SW SHEAR...NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AS PER ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS.
HER TRACK IS ANOTHER STORY. KAREN MOVING FARTHER W THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED AS PER UKMET/EMCWF. GFS ON OTHER HAND TURNS MORE TO THE E
AND GETS INLAND NEAR FLORIDA BIG BEND...REASON FOR LOWER CONFIDENCE.
DEEP LAYER TROUGH DRIVING STRONG SHEAR OVER KAREN WITH VERY DRY
AIR MASS DEPLETING MOISTURE AND CONVECTION FROM CENTER. KAREN
MOVES INLAND EARLY SUN WITH WINDS AND SEAS QUICKLY DIMINISHING
OVER GULF.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH BRING FRESH N WINDS BEHIND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN GULF...BUT SEAS DO NOT HAVE A CHANCE
TO BUILD ABOVE 6-7 FT IN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
GOOD CONFIDENCE.  

HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF REGION PERSIST THROUGH SAT THEN MOVE OUT OF
AREA AS DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER GULF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERS SW N ATLC. MUCH WEAKER PRES GRADIENT LEAD TO LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED OFF MID ATLC SEABOARD AT 33N68W KEEP GENTLE
TO MODERATE E-SE BREEZE ACROSS REGION. WINDS IN EXTREME NW CORNER
OF BASIN N OF 29N W OF 77W ARE NIPPED BY STRONG SE-S WINDS AS
KAREN CROSSES GEORGIA LATE SUN AND MON. TIMING AND STRENGTH HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF KAREN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO SAT NIGHT.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO SAT NIGHT.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.