000
AGXX40 KNHC 030745
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
345 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH AL97 TRACK IN LINE
WITH TCVN

LOW LIFTING NNW THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL AND LOOKING IMPRESSIVE IN
STLT IMAGERY...WITH CURRENT CLASSIFICATIONS CENTERED ON T2.5.
RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT AREA OF 40 KT WINDS IN E
SEMICIRCLE...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE WITH GALE WARNING...THROUGH 48
HRS...UNTIL TC ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED...WHEN WE WILL CONVERT
WARNINGS. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING PROGRESSIVE NNW MOTION
THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN SLOWING AND MAKING TURN TO N THEN NE AND
ACROSS MOBILE BAY AREA. WIND SHEAR MAY LIMIT INTENSIFICATION AFTER
48 HOURS BUT THERE IS TIME FOR A FORMIDABLE TS DURING NEXT 48 HRS
AND AS SOON AS LOW CLEARS THE YUCATAN COAST SURFACE CIRCULATION
SHOULD IMPROVE. HIGH OCTOBER TIDES AND SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING HIGH WATER LEVELS INTO THE COASTAL ZONES E OF MOUTH OF
MS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND DETERIORATE THROUGH 60 HRS. SQUALL
LINE WILL ALSO LIFT N OUT OF NE GULF TODAY AND INTO COASTAL
WATERS. MAX SEAS 12-14 FT EXPECTED ON APPROACH TO MOUTH OF MS AND
THIS WIND SWELL WILL HIT COASTAL ZONES HARD...ALL THE WAY TO
APALACHICOLA.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS 

LOW PRES CENTER LIFTING OUT THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL ATTM WITH
25-40 KT SSE WINDS THROUGH CHANNEL PER RECENT ASCAT PASS...AND
SEAS LIKELY TO 12 FT. FRESH FLOW S OF 13N OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA
AND NW VENEZUELA WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY TO 20 KT THIS MORNING...THEN
WITH MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN NEXT FEW DAYS
UNDER VERY WEAK GRADIENT. TROPICAL WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL ATLC BEING PULLED NW WITH LITTLE WWD TRANSLATION AND THUS
MINIMAL IMPACTS ON TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL
SAVE FOR UNDULATIONS ALONG ITCZ. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: UKMET-GFS MEAN BLEND 

NHC FORECASTS KEEPS JERRY FAR E OF ZONES WITH NO IMPACT WHATSOEVER
...NOT EVEN SWELLS. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 31N WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
WINDS AND 4-5 FT SEAS N OF 30N THROUGH FRI. 1019 MB HIGH CENTER
NEAR 28N64W WILL PROVIDE STEADY E-SE FLOW OF GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TROPICAL WAVE
ENERGY ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC BEING DRAWN NW WITH MINIMAL ENERGY
EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE WWD INTO AREA NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.