000
AGXX40 KNHC 291810
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
210 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 00 AND 06 UTC GFS. GOOD CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM EASTERN U.S. INTO N CENTRAL 
GULF WILL MAINTAIN FRESH NE WINDS IN THE NE GULF TONIGHT. 
AFTERWARDS A WEAK RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TUE. A 
BROAD TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE SE GULF 
WED AND THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT REGARDING WHETHER A 
LOW WILL FORM AND INTENSIFY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. GFS MODEL HAS 
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT LAST 2-3 RUN CYCLES SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER 
THAT EITHER A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP BUT NOT INTENSIFY MUCH...OR 
NOT FORM AT ALL.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 00 AND 06 UTC GFS. GOOD CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE E CENTRAL ATLC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THU. LOW LEVEL 
WIND SURGE WILL CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY W ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN 
TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING IN 
THE WEST- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES TROUGH 
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG ROUGHLY 77W. GFS MODEL HAS BEEN 
MORE CONSISTENT LAST 2-3 RUN CYCLES DEPICTING BROAD TROUGH BUT 
NO SIGNIFICANT LOW DEVELOPING OUT OF THIS MONSOONAL SYSTEM...SO 
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY 
LIFT NW ACROSS THE NW PART OF YUCATAN INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
MEXICO. WIND SURGE WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS IN WEST-CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WIND SURGE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS 
TO 6-7 POSSIBLY 8 FT...NEAR JAMAICA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 00 AND 06 UTC GFS. GOOD CONFIDENCE.

OCCLUDED LOW CENTERED NEAR 29.5N 68.5W IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT 
NE AS EXPECTED. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARE GENERALLY 5-6 
FT...AND SCATTEROMETER SHOWS 15-20 KT WINDS AROUND THE CENTER. 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TRIPLE POINT NEAR 31N63W TO THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL DRIFT SE AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. ELONGATED LOW 
PRES AREA NW OF FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD. A WEAK RIDGE 
WILL DOMINATE FORECAST WATERS AFTERWARD MON NIGHT THROUGH THU.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.