000 AGXX40 KNHC 290801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 401 AM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GEFS MEAN. DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH OFF E COAST CONTINUES TO COMBINE WITH UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ON SE TEXAS COAST TO PRODUCE NLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS E HALF OF GULF...FORCING OLD FRONTAL ZONE FARTHER S TO ALONG ABOUT 21N AND THE NRN YUCATAN. 0306Z ASCAT PASS SUGGEST NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW AGAIN AT WORK ACROSS NE GULF AND BIG BEND REGION WITH ENE WINDS AROUND 20 KT ACROSS COASTAL WATERS S TO NEAR VENICE. BUOYS 4-5 FT DOWNWIND OF BIG BEND WITH 42036 AT 6 FT. ECWAVE HAD BETTER HANDLE ON THIS THAN WW3 AND WILL HAVE TO ADJUST IN SHORT TERM FOR THE REGION. LOW ACROSS SW N ATLC TO BEGIN LIFTING OUT TO THE N TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THIS NELY FLOW EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY...THEN BACK MORE ELY AND E COAST RIDGE ALONG WEAKENS AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING SE TEXAS COAST HALTS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NW TUE. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND MILD SEAS 3 FT OR LESS EXPECTED NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN...WITH GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING LOW TO LIFT OUT OF NW CARIB AND INTO BASIN LATE WED INTO THU...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF IN FORECASTS PAST 24 HOURS...IN PART BECAUSE GFS WAS SO AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPMENT OF A TC. WHATEVER LIFTS NW OUT OF CARIB WILL EVENTUALLY RECURVE NE TOWARDS W COAST OF FLORIDA AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM NW NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS NOT INDICATING VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...AND MODEST T.S. APPEARS STRONGEST SCENARIO. AT PRESENT PREFER TO FOLLOW GEFS MEAN WHICH LIFTS LLVL LOW NNW INTO ERN GULF AND SLOWLY RECURVES INTO W CENTRAL FL BY LATE SAT AS A WEAKENED SYSTEM. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GEFS MEAN. VERY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS ERN CARIB MASKING PRESENCE OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WNW AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED 24-48 HRS IN DEVELOPING MONSOON CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB. THIS MONSOONAL CIRCULATION WILL SHIFT W TO WNW NEXT FEW DAYS...AND AS STATED ABOVE...MODELS SUGGESTING LLVL VORT CENTER SHIFTING NW INTO GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFERING SOLUTIONS CONTINUE WITH MODELS AND PREFER THE GEFS MEAN SHIFTING VORT CENTER INTO ERN GULF BY END OF WEEK...WHILE LEAVING A SECOND LOW ACROSS FAR SW CARIB ANCHORING MONSOON TROUGH. NEAR EQUATORIAL WIND SURGE MOVING ACROSS 50W THIS MORNING TO AID IN FORCING THIS FEATURE WWD BY 72 HRS...AND ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE WILL ALSO INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE BASIN NEXT FEW DAYS...BEGINNING ACROSS S PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING WNW THROUGH CARIB TONIGHT THROUGH WED. WILL USE A BLEND OF ECWAVE AND WW3 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WIND SURGE TO MOVE NW THROUGH CENTRAL CARIB AND ACROSS JAMAICA-CAYMANS CORRIDOR...BUILDING SEAS TO AT LEAST 6 FT...BUT AT PRESENT WILL NOT GO TO 8 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND. OCCLUDED SW ATLC LOW BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE NNE ATTM AND WILL EXIT THE REGION NEXT 24 HOURS...ALLOWING WINDS ACROSS NW PORTIONS TO BRIEFLY BACK TO NNE TODAY...AND WEAKEN. SEAS HAVE PEAKED IN TERMS OF SWH ACROSS THE FL COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS BUT WILL FADE VERY SLOWLY NEXT 36 HOURS AS 9 SEC NELY SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. SURFS UP! ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH E OF LOW AND INTO TURKS AND CAICOS TO WASH OUT NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS WELL WITH SWLY WINDS NEAR 20 KT ACROSS NE PORTIONS TO SHIFT N WITH PARENT LOW TODAY. WEAK RIDGING TO THEN PREVAIL NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TO THE E...T.D. 11 HAS FORMED AND REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-MID LAYER WEAKNESS...AND TRAPPED BETWEEN TO WEAK HIGHS TO THE E AND W. MODELS SUGGEST THIS TC WILL NOT MOVE MUCH OVER NEXT FEW DAYS AND COULD ACTUALLY MAKE AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOP. THIS WILL GENERATE SOME MODEST SWELL TO AFFECT E AND SE SECTIONS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT SMALL SIZE OF SYSTEM WILL GREATLY REDUCE IMPACT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.