000
AGXX40 KNHC 250755
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
355 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WITH MEDIUM LEVEL OF 
CONFIDENCE DUE TO COMPLEXITY OF TRACKING LOW PRES CENTERS.

WEAK TROUGH EXTEND FROM 1007 MB LOW PRES CENTER INLAND NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA TO ANOTHER SIMILAR CENTER AT 27N93W TO 24N98W. BOTH
CENTERS DRIFT E-NE THROUGH FRI WHEN SECOND ONE MOVES INLAND OVER
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGES OF
BASIN GIVE WAY TO BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS SE STATES BRINGING GENTLE
TO MODERATE E-NE BREEZE AND SEAS 2-4 FT ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN THROUGH
LATE SAT...EXCEPT FRESH NE BREEZE N OF 27N E OF 87W. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS 6-8 FT THROUGH
THU WHILE MODERATE E-SE FLOW REMAINS ACROSS REMAINDER OF BASIN AND
OVER TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER E CENTRAL ATLC
FORCED S BY SERIES OF LOW PRES CENTERS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
BETWEEN 28N-31N. THIS EFFECTIVELY WEAKENS PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
CARIBBEAN AFTER THU ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 4-5 FT IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 2-3 FT ELSEWHERE. WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 57W IN TROPICAL N ATLC MOVE W-NW AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
THU WITH LITTLE OR NO IMPACT IN TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WITH MODERATE
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO TRACK...TIMING AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRES CENTER.

COLD FRONT FROM 31N61W TO 27N70W THEN STATIONARY TO 1009 MB LOW
PRES CENTER AT 31N79W THEN TO NE FLORIDA. LOW PRES CENTER
ONDULATES E ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH SAT WHILE INTENSIFYING
BRINGING COLD FRONT WITH STRONG SW WINDS AND SEAS 8-10 FT N OF
26N E OF 76W. FRONT STALL FROM 29N65W ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO N
CENTRAL CUBA EARLY SAT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY REACH NEAR GALE
FORCE IN VICINITY OF NUMEROUS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
TSTMS. WINDS DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE FROM W TO E AS LOW PRES
CENTER MOVES E OF AREA. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE IN MOST 
INSTANCES...AREA COVERAGE OF STRONG WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS DIFFER
ENOUGH TO ADD UNCERTAINTY.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.