000
AGXX40 KNHC 190657
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
257 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS
USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRES 1004 MB IS IN THE SW GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 240 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE
LOW WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE IN THE
FAR NE GULF WATERS AND SE GULF WATERS INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WNW DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREAFTER A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF OF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW GULF
BY EARLY SAT WITH FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIVERGE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE LOW WHEN IT INTERACTS
WITH THE FRONT. THE LOW MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD THEN TO THE NE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OR A PORTION OF THE ENERGY MAY BE ABSORBED BY
THE FRONT WHILE A SURFACE CIRCULATION IS LEFT BEHIND IN THE WAKE
OF IT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATTER SCENARIO.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS
USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT
RANGE CONTINUE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF GENERALLY W OF 85W.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE
4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 4-5 FT OVER
THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL START TO
DECREASE AS THE LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE
FURTHER FROM THE AREA. OTHERWISE...BROAD TROUGH N OF THE AREA WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF
THE AREA LIFTS OUT AND HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO
GENTLE WITH 3-5 FT SEAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT AS THEY VEER TO
THE SE. MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WILL RETURN SUN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH GFS. NWPS USED
FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR N PART OF THE AREA E OF 68W AND N OF
29N THEN STATIONARY FRONT W OF 68W ALONG 29N. A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH SEAS IN
THE 6-8 FT RANGE. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL WITH
SEAS 4-5 FT IN EASTERLY SWELL E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-3 FT SEAS W
OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF THE AREA
WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY DECREASING THE WINDS
AND SEAS OVER THE N PART OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE
TROUGH BY FRI. THE LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE NE THROUGH SAT AND E
OF THE AREA SUN WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE E.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.