000
AGXX40 KNHC 180726
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
326 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE REGARDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW

A TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERALLY S OF 24N E OF 90W DUE TO A LOCALLY
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SE UNITED STATES. SEAS OVER THIS AREA ARE IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WATERS EXCEPT THE SW GULF WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL.
SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WATERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED LOW OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE W GULF WATERS TODAY INTO
THU. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NW ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH FRI
BEFORE STALLING. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE NE ALONG A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE NW WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE OF THE
AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND REACHES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE ON SUN NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND
CMAN DATA INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. THE
LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS GENERALLY W OF 83W WITH
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS 7-9 FT NOTED. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH SEAS 5-7 FT AND MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS 3-5
FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SEAS 5-7 FT PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS BY THU WHICH
WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS BY WEEKS END. AS THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER FROM THE AREA...WINDS WILL
FALL BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER FRIDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN WINDS MODERATE OR BELOW AND SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS
AGAIN ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE

A COLD FRONT PREVAILS OVER THE FAR N PART OF THE AREA GENERALLY N
OF 30N WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS AS WELL AS SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA
N OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL WITH SEAS 4-6 FT IN EASTERLY SWELL E OF THE
BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE BY THU WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BY
WEEKS END BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVES E OF THE AREA BY SUN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.