000
AGXX40 KNHC 170655
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 AM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH
STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE SW GULF WATERS

FORMER TROPICAL STORM INGRID IS INLAND OVER MEXICO AND HAS
WEAKENED TO A REMNANT LOW. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND
SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF...EXCEPT
OVER THE SW GULF WATERS WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WATERS.
SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH INGRID CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AND ARE IN THE
5-7 FT FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF N OF 22N AND 2-4 FT OVER THE
WATERS S OF 22N. OTHERWISE SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF AND 1-3 FT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE W GULF
WATERS WED INTO THU WITH LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE SW
GULF.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE RIDGE HAS MOVED FURTHER N OF THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING.
BROAD TROUGHING NOW PREVAILS N OF THE AREA OVER THE SW N ATLC
WATERS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS STARTING TO LOOSEN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG
WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA INDICATE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN HAVE DIMINISHED SOME AND ARE NOW BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...HOWEVER LINGERING SEAS TO 9 FT REMAIN OVER THIS AREA.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS WITH
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NOTED OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF AS A RESULT
OF A TIGHTER GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS
ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF...5-8 FT OVER THE
FAR WESTERN GULF...AND 6-7 FT RANGE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS. SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
AND WILL SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THU. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SW
GULF WATERS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED N OF THE AREA WITH BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS AS WELL AS SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT GENTLE TO LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 4-6 FT EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE IN
THE 3-5 FT RANGE AND W OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT
RANGE. WEAK TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.