000
AGXX40 KNHC 140624
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
224 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF CONCERN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS TROPICAL STORM INGRID
WHICH WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 95.2 W AT 0300 UTC WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KT GUSTING TO 60 KT AND ESTIMATED MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 993 MB. INGRID IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS
THE SYSTEM REACHES NEAR 21.1N 95.6W WITH WINDS 60 KT GUSTING TO
75 KT TONIGHT...THEN REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY NEAR 21.9N 96.5W
SUN MORNING...NEAR 22.3N 97.5W WITH WINDS 70 KT GUSTING TO 85 KT
SUN EVENING...THEN MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO BY EARLY MON. 

OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF INGRID...HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE SE
CONUS WILL RESULT IN GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E BREEZE WITH SEAS
3-5 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF BASIN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA OVER THE SW N ATLC
WATERS WITH DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE 1008 MB CENTERED NE OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG
WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE
FAR W CARIBBEAN AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS
ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE PREVAILING
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
TO A TROUGH TODAY AND CONTINUE ON A WNW TRACK THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND STRENGTHEN
TRADEWIND FLOW OVER THIS AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE

WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WATERS S OF 22N AND LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF 22N. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER
THE SE PART OF THE AREA...AND 3-5 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS EXCEPT W OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE
PREVAIL. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE SE PART OF THE AREA
WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
OVERALL A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.