000
AGXX40 KNHC 111807
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
207 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE

RIDGE OF HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA OVER THE GULF COAST WILL BREAK 
DOWN THU NIGHT AHEAD OF WEAKENING COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN 
U.S. THAT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST 
FRI AND SAT. TROUGH ACROSS BELIZE WILL MOVE SLOWLY WNW ACROSS 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ENTERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU. A LOW 
PRES AREA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH THU NIGHT IN 
THE SW GULF...THEN INTENSIFY THROUGH SUN AND DRIFT WNW. LOW IS 
RATED MEDIUM POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH POTENTIAL FROM DAY 2-5. 
GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL...SPINNING UP A STRONG 
TROPICAL STORM IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THE PAST 1-2 DAYS. OTHER 
MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE RESTRAINED. THE LATEST 1200 UTC GFS MODEL 
RUN TAKES THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST IN THE SOUTHERN 
BAY. WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARE SIGNIFICANTLY 
LOWER AS A RESULT...AND THE GFS HAS FALLEN IN LINE CLOSER TO 
ECMWF AND UKMET MODEL GUIDANCE. USED THE 12Z GFS AS A BASELINE 
FOR MEDIUM RANGE FCST SINCE I WAS CAPPING WINDS AND SEAS BEFORE 
DUE TO ITS HIGH BIAS RELATIVE TO ENSEMBLE MEAN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE

A BROAD TROUGH PREVAILS N OF THE AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN 
THROUGH THU...WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL 
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. A WEAK LOW IN 
THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 17N50W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A 
TROUGH AND DRIFT SLOWLY W BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN 60W 
AND 65W THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS 
THE REGION RESULTING IN BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE 
CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH SUN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE FAR 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES IN S GULF OF MEXICO.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE

A WEAK PRES PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING 
SW FROM TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...MOVING AWAY FROM AREA...WILL 
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU NIGHT. A DYING COLD FRONT 
WILL BECOME STATIONARY N OF 30N FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING 
THEN DISSIPATE BY SUN EVENING. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE LIKELY 
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SAT...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE S OF 
25N SUN AND MON AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF 30N.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.