000
AGXX40 KNHC 100641
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
241 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE

RIDGE OF HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WHILE
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SW
GULF. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA BY LATER TODAY WHILE
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTINUE N OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE SW GULF BY MID WEEK. THE TROUGH AND LOW
WILL DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH FRI.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE

BROAD TROUGH N OF THE AREA OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE TROPICAL N
ATLC AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN...AND 2-4 FT OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SW N ATLC FROM THE E AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTHWARD. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
FRESH TRADEWIND FLOW THROUGH FRI.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE

THE REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 29N65W WITH TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW. THIS LOW
HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND COULD
IMPACT THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL W OF THE LOW. SEAS ARE INCREASING NEAR THE LOW...WITH SEA IN
THE 5-6 FT ELSEWHERE E OF THE 70 AND 4-5 FT W OF 70W EXCEPT 1-3 FT
W OF THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE E AS THE
REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE NORTHWARD.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.