000 AGXX40 KNHC 010615 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS CENTRAL FL TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...THEN TURNS NW TO THE NE TX COAST. HIGH PRES CENTERS WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF ALONG THIS NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE AXIS DURING AFTERNOON HEAT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL FL...EFFECTIVELY SEPARATING THE ATLC RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SEGMENT OF THE RIDGE. GUIDANCE IS STILL SUGGESTING A WEAK TROUGH WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE FAR N-CENTRAL AND FAR NE WATERS ON TUE MOVING E OF AREA OVER N FL ON WED. LATEST MOISTURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND MON AFTERNOON OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE YUCATAN PASSAGE ATTM...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY AN ENE-E 5-10 KT WIND SHIFT. FORECASTING SE WINDS TO INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 10-15 KT E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE W-CENTRAL AND SW GULF WATERS ON TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT WITH THE WAVE AXIS MOVING ONTO THE MEXICAN COAST AROUND SUNRISE ON THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 85W IS PASSING UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING S OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED OVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N E OF THE WAVE TO 76W. EXPECT THIS WAVE TO MOVE W OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH ESE WINDS AT 15 KT/SEAS 3-5 FT...CONTINUING IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE OVER W CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE MORNING ON MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY FROM 12-19N ALONG 58W HAS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 15N... CONFIRMED BY RECON EXPERIMENT DATA FROM SAT AFTERNOON. NE-E WINDS AT 20-25 KT/SEAS 6-9 FT ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 15N WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GRADIENT THE GRADIENT RELAXING TO 15-20 KT EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE TONIGHT. THE LOW PRES CENTER NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE WAVE AXIS REACHING NEAR 15N61W TONIGHT...NEAR 16N63W AT SUNRISE ON MON...REACHING NEAR 17N64W ON MON NIGHT...THEN THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON TUE. THE WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON WED ACCOMPANIED BY NE 10-15 KT WINDS W OF THE WAVE AXIS AND E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS E OF THE WAVE AXIS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI...THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT FROM THE E BEGINNING LATE FRI AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A FRONT HAS STALLED FROM 32N61W TO 27N65W AND EFFECTIVELY SEPARATES THE ATLC RIDGE INTO 2 SEGMENTS. A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N67W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO CENTRAL FL. SW 15 KT WINDS/SEAS 5-6 FT IS NOTED N OF 30N WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE STALLED FRONT...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT LATER TODAY OVER THE WATERS S OF 31N. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT SHOULD WASH OUT COMPLETELY BY MIDDAY TUE AS THE RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED FROM 31N65W TO CENTRAL FL...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO PSN FROM 31N60W TO NE FL ON THU. A TROUGH WILL DIP S INTO THE N-CENTRAL WATERS ON FRI BUT REACH ONLY AS FAR S AS 30N. EXPECT SW WINDS AT 15 KT TO DEVELOP N OF THE RIDGE...GENERALLY N OF 29N W OF 76W ON MON AND MON NIGHT...OTHERWISE MOSTLY 10 KT WINDS EXPECTED N OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY S OF 19N ALONG 58W. THE WAVE WILL GAIN SOME LATITUDE AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD...BUT STILL ONLY EXPECT NE-E WINDS AT 15 KT/SEAS 4-6 FT TO SPREAD W ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS NE...AND LATER N...OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY AND MON. THE GRADIENT SEEMS TO TIGHTEN A LITTLE ON TUE SUPPORTING E WINDS 1T 15-20 KT EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE MONA PASSAGE THROUGH TUE...AND THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON WED AND WED NIGHT. THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN THEREAFTER WITH ONLY 10-15 KT ALONG THE WAVE AS IT PASSES W THROUGH THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS ON AND FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.