000 AGXX40 KNHC 311807 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 207 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS INDUCING SOME SCATTERED TSTMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING MOVING FROM E TO W ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS DRAPPED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ALONG 30N EXTENDING NW INTO W CENTRAL GEORGIA. OUTSIDE OF THIS CONVECTION...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 1015 MB HIGH PRES IS IN THE E CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N87W REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE N TO NEAR 29N86W BY MID WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE... STRONGEST IN THE LEE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-5 FT OCCASIONALLY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT... GRADUALLY REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MON THROUGH WED HELPING TO INCREASE THOSE WINDS AND SEAS W OF THE YUCATAN. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING MAY APPROACH THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF WATERS BY MID- WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STALL JUST INLAND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MAINLY MODERATE TRADES...LOCALLY FRESH...AND 3-6 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W IS AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM 13N TO 17N...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...EXITING THE BASIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EXTENDING FROM 18N52W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N55W 1012 MB TO 10N56W. THE WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON...MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED...THEN INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THEREAFTER. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8-9 FT SEAS ARE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE FROM 16N TO 20N E OF 57W. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH/SUBSIDE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS THAN 8 FT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRES WEAKEN WHILE MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 23N OVER THE FAR SW CORNER WILL EXIT THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY TONIGHT. THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1022 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 34N45W THROUGH 25N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N79W TO ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ALONG 30N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM 27N55W TO NE FL TONIGHT...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A POSITION FROM 31N55W TO CENTRAL FL ON TUE... THEN FROM 31N60W TO CENTRAL FL ON WED AND THU. EXPECT E-SE WINDS AT 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT A ENE-ESE 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 21N/22N THROUGH MID- WEEK WHEN THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.