000 AGXX40 KNHC 280817 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 417 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND CONDITIONS HAVE QUIETED DOWN CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE BASIN WITH VERY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK LLVL TO MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING W-SW ACROSS W GULF ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW LOW TOPPED TSTMS...WHILE TUTT LOW ACROSS THE THE STRAITS IS CUT OFF AND SLOWLY SPINNING DOWN. NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT DOWN BACK SIDE OF W ATLC TROUGH WILL LIKELY REINVIGORATE TUTT LOW...TO A MINOR DEGREE...AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...THEN IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NW THEN W SAT AND SUN. WITH WEAK LLVL FLOW...A SFC TROUGH IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BELOW THIS FEATURE AND ACTIVE CONVECTION INVOF OF THE LOW SHOULD BE EXPECTED...AT LEAST DURING THE DIURNAL CYCLE. SFC HIGH FCST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO SINK INTO NE GULF BY FRI AND YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW ACROSS AL AND NW FL COASTAL WATERS WHERE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT COULD YIELD 3 FT SEAS. LIGHT SLY RETURN FLOW ALSO FCST ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND SIMILAR DIURNAL EFFECTS COULD PRODUCE PEAK AFTERNOON WINDS NEAR 15 KT AND SEAS TO 3 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS TROPICAL WAVE SLOWLY EXITING SW CARIB AND GULF OF HONDURAS ATTM...NOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND EPAC ALONG ABOUT 88W...AND IS PULLING TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF COLOMBIA AND INTO BACKSIDE OF WAVE. ACTIVE CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR ADVECT INTO AREA. SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WNW ACROSS HAITI AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS ATTM AND WILL MOVE THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS MORNING WITH WEATHER MAINLY BEHIND IT. WEAK GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ATTM WITH WINDS LIKELY AROUND 20 KT OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND SEAS THERE 6-7 FT. STEERING FLOW TO TRANSPORT NEXT TWO TROPICAL WAVE GENERALLY WNW ACROSS E PORTIONS OF THE BASIN WITH LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS S PORTIONS. CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE TO BUILD IN WEAKLY ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND HAITI TROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FEW DAYS AND BRING A RETURN TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS...BUT SEAS THERE ONLY EXPECTED 6-8 FT AND POSSIBLY TO 9 FT ALONG 72-73W DURING NOCTURNAL MAX. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52.5W ATTM FORECAST TO MOVE WNW AND ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND ACROSS NE CARIB THU AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS FRI. STRONGEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED N OF 18 AND MAINLY ACROSS ATLC WATERS. A WEAKNESS SURROUNDING THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS THE MDR OF TROPICAL ATLC IS ALLOWING WEAK LLVL LOWS TO DEVELOP AND HAVE BEEN LEFT BEHIND BY LAST 2 TROPICAL WAVES. EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW NEXT WAVE APPROACHING 40W ATTM PICKING UP AND ENHANCING A WEAK LOW INVOF OF 50W THIS WEEKEND AND COULD MOVE INTO TROPICAL N ATLC AND NE CARIB AS A SUBSTANTIAL WAVE WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS N SEMICIRCLE...N OF 15-16N AND SEAS AROUND 8 FT OR HIGHER. THIS WAVE IS NOT AS ENGROSSED IN SAL AS RECENT WAVES AND REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY ATTM. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL ZONE PERSIST ACROSS THE N WATERS ALONG ABOUT 28N AND ARE YIELDING SCATTERED MODERATE CNVTN ENHANCED BY UPPER TROUGHING THERE. TROUGH ACROSS HAITI WILL MOVE WNW NEXT 2 DAYS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH ACTIVE WEATHER TRAILING IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH BAHAMAS AND REACHES S FL AND STRAITS EARLY SAT. CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE TO BUILD IN WEAKLY BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND PRODUCE 15-20 KT TRADES DIRECTLY BEHIND IT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI S OF 22N...AND THEN AGAIN S OF 22N OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING CARIB ATTM. RIDGING FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED DURING THIS TIME ALONG ABOUT 27N WITH MODERATE E TO E-SE TRADES TO THE S AND LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW TO THE N OF RIDGE. A SERIES OF FRONTAL TROUGHS SWEEPING E ACROSS THE W ATLC COULD INDUCE SW WINDS 15-20 KT FAR NW WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MON NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.