000 AGXX40 KNHC 231840 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EDT FRI AUG 23 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND GFS WITH OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF WATERS WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO LIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE GULF BASIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING TO THE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND 3-5 FT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. BOTH THE TROUGH AND TROPICAL WAVE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REACH THE TEXAS COAST SAT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE YUCATAN THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY W THROUGH BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ESE TO SE WINDS WILL BUILD BEHIND BOTH OF THESE FEATURES AND PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 15 KT EXCEPT 15-20 KT OFF YUCATAN AND THEN NEAR 20 KT W OF THE PENINSULA WITH EXITING EVENING CONVECTION EACH EVENING BEGINNING SAT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AND WAVE THROUGH SUN...AND 3 FT OR LESS TO W OF THESE FEATURES. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND GFS WITH OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS REACHED THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE HAS REACHED THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND FAR W WATERS NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 4-6 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS DEPICTED WIND SURGE BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS NOTED. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO THE 8 FT RANGE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GFS SUGGESTING NOCTURNAL MAX TO 30 KT OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA SAT NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TRADES DIMINISHING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SE CARIBBEAN SAT. THE WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE ZONE OF SAL AND WILL ENCOUNTER STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT YIELDING LIMITED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. TRADES WILL FRESHEN ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FT SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND GFS WITH OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 30N73W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE W OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR N PART OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT WILL NOT PROGRESS VERY FAR INTO THE AREA BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KT SUN AND MON. EASTERLY SWELL WILL BRING 5-6 FT SEAS INTO THE SE ZONES THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.