000
AGXX40 KNHC 090759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
359 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO... 
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. NWPS
USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

A TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING
FROM 26N89W TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE TROUGH
WILL MIGRATE W ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF FROM E TO W BEHIND THE TROUGH. FARTHER
SOUTH...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MIGRATING
THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE E TO SE WINDS TO 20
KT ARE NOTED. THE OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF AN
UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF LATER TODAY. JUDGING FROM
THE 00 UTC MIA SOUNDING AND ESTIMATES FROM THE GOES SOUNDER AND
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS...THIS SYSTEM MAY BE COLD CORE ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SE WATERS LATE TODAY INTO
SAT. LOOKING AHEAD...NO MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT
INDICATING THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

VARIOUS SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE FRESH E FLOW ACROSS THE NE
AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN BETWEEN RIDGING N OF THE AREA OVER
THE WESTERN ATLC AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG ROUGHLY 80W MOVING THROUGH
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS MOVING
W ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...AND 3 TO
5 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW PREVAILS
OVER THE WESTERN THE GFS INITIALIZED THE BEST SHOWING THESE
CONDITIONS AND WAS USED AS THE BASIS FOR THE OVERALL FORECAST. THE
MAIN TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING
GRADUALLY WITH THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS EXPANDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...           
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA ALONG
31N TO NE FLORIDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL MOVE THE AREA N
OF 22N...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES S OF 22N BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE EXITING W OF THE AREA
THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA. SEAS AREA 3 TO 5 FT OUTSIDE THE
BAHAMAS...AND UP TO 6 FT NEAR THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WILL MOVE
W ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...WITH TRAILING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION FOLLOWING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...MAINLY THIS MORNING.
LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING THE RIDGE
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.