000
AGXX40 KNHC 070651
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
251 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO... 
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. WW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS (NWPS NOT
AVAILABLE UNTIL 08Z).

1016 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N91W.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH RETURN FLOW AND 3-5 FT SEAS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE GULF WATERS W OF 94W AND ALSO THROUGHOUT S OF
22N. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH 1-3 FT SEAS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.
THE GULF IS MAINLY CONVECTION FREE EARLY THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF A
FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO
THE NW-N AS A SURFACE TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE E GULF WATERS. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH ALONG 84W THIS
AFTERNOON...88W THU AFTERNOON...93W FRI AFTERNOON...AND 96W SAT
AFTERNOON PUSHING INLAND OVER TEXAS/MEXICO THEREAFTER. SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE A BRIEF
WIND SHIFT AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRES
BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE NE FOR THE END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. WW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS (NWPS NOT
AVAILABLE UNTIL 08Z).

ONLY A SMALL AREA OF LINGERING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8-9 FT
SEAS REMAINS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
NW COLOMBIAN COAST AS CONFIRMED BY OVERNIGHT ASCAT AND OSCAT
PASSES. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. A
WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE E CARIBBEAN
ALONG ROUGHLY THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO N CENTRAL VENEZUELA. THIS
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT
THROUGH THU...THEN THE W CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT...LIKELY LOSING
EVEN MORE DEFINITION AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. MEANWHILE A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 17N ALONG
58W/59W AS SEEN NICELY BY A 0406 UTC OSCAT PASS. THIS TROUGH WILL
HAVE MORE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THAN THE PRECEDING
TROPICAL WAVE WITH A POCKET OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND
6-7 FT SEAS ACCOMPANYING MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN BY TONIGHT...REACHING
THE W CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE BASINS WITH 3-6 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN
...WITH 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE BUILDING TO 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. WW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS (NWPS NOT
AVAILABLE UNTIL 08Z).

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WAS ALONG 30N...ALTHOUGH LITTLE
TRACE IS LEFT OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH HOWEVER DOES REMAIN EVIDENT STRETCHING FROM NEAR 31N74W TO
28N77W TO SE FLORIDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN
ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 3-6 FT ELSEWHERE.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE W OVER THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. 

ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH...MOVING IN TANDEM WITH A TROPICAL WAVE TO
THE S OF 20N OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...IS ALONG 65W. THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD BECOMING ILL-DEFINED WHILE THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MANAGE TO BRING
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS TO THE WATERS S OF 22N THU AND FRI. HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N THIS WEEKEND AND A TIGHT ENOUGH PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND TROUGHING IN THE CARIBBEAN TO THE S WILL
ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND 5-7
FT SEAS S OF 22N/23N THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.