000 AGXX40 KNHC 060725 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 325 AM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. 1017 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N80W IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY 1-3 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE TYPICAL W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OUT RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO SE LOUISIANA WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REACHING FROM 1013 MB LOW PRES OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W THROUGH 28N86W TO 29N90W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED WITH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS POST-SUNSET...ALTHOUGH EXPECT A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY NEAR THESE FEATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE AREA OF HIGH PRES SHIFTING TO THE N THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE E GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WED...REACHING 89W/90W THU NIGHT...THEN 95W FRI NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING INLAND OVER MEXICO/ TEXAS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE MINIMAL...AMOUNTING TO MAINLY JUST A WIND SHIFT WITH WIND SPEEDS ONLY INCREASING AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 KT LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS WELL OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THIS IS QUITE SPECULATIVE GIVEN THAT THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED IN THE SW N ATLC JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST...EXCEPT GFS ONLY OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A WEAKENING PRES PATTERN IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE BASIN AS RIDGING N-NE OF THE AREA HAS RETREATED. MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS DOMINATE THE WATERS...EXCEPT IN THE FAR S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN/NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE A RECENT ASCAT PASS CLIPPED THE AREA INDICATING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS. ALTIMETER DATA OVER THE AREA MEASURED 7-9 FT SEAS WITH 10 FT SEAS EXPECTED JUST TO THE W DOWNWIND OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH/SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS THAN 8 FT BY WED AFTERNOON. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN/LEE OF CUBA AS WELL AS ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA COASTLINE...WITH 4-7 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. ALSO OF NOTE... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ALONG 58W/59W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN BY TONIGHT...THEN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT AND THU...THEN W CARIBBEAN FRI-SAT. OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ...LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. WW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N70W TO OVER JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO 1013 MB LOW PRES OVER N FLORIDA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N73W TO ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120-180 NM SE-S OF THE TROUGH WITH LIMITED ACTIVITY NEAR THE ACTUAL FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK TO THE N ALONG 31N BY WED AFTERNOON WHILE THE TROUGH BEGINS A WESTWARD MIGRATION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...MOVING ACROSS IT BY LATE WED. ANOTHER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN CURRENTLY S OF 29N ALONG 60W. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH 65W BY WED AFTERNOON...70W BY THU NIGHT...THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE AS IT MOVES OVER THE BAHAMAS TOWARD FLORIDA. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 3-5 FT WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS N OF 22N WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS S OF 22N. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.