000 AGXX40 KNHC 020646 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 246 AM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...BARELY DETECTABLE AT THE SURFACE...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES PREVAILS OVER THE N PART OF THE GULF WATERS. THE LATEST REMOTE SENSED AND IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS REPORT LIGHT WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL AND E GULF...WITH MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE ENTIRE BASIN IS MAINLY VOID OF ANY CONVECTION...EXCEPT IN THE N CENTRAL GULF COASTAL WATERS S OF LOUISIANA. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THESE RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE N OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. A FAIRLY WEAK PRES PATTERN COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES PRESENT AT THE SURFACE. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND FAR SW CARIBBEAN...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS USUAL. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT N OF 20N...AND MAINLY 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE... EXCEPT 8-9 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR COLOMBIA. THE RIDGING N OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND WHILE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE EXPANSION IN COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REACHING WESTWARD TO 82W...WITH EVEN NEAR GALE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. NOTE THAT WITH THE PERSISTENT STRONG TO NEAR GALE TRADES SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 12-13 FT IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE AREA OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. BY MON INTO TUE...THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AS A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE SE U.S. COAST CAUSING THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO BECOME CONFINED TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MEANWHILE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASIN LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE POTENTIALLY BREAKING OFF AS A TROUGH AND MOVING MORE N-NW OF THE REMAINING WAVE AXIS. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHORT TERM...THEN HIGH. HAND EDITS MADE FOR REMNANTS OF DORIAN. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. LATEST REMOTE SENSED AND IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS REPORT MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS W OF THE BAHAMAS AND 3-6 FT ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING E OF THE REMNANT DORIAN TROUGH AXIS FROM JUST INSIDE THE OUTER MIAMI COASTAL WATERS TO THE WESTERN BAHAMAS WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WEAK LOW PRES MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NW-N DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH A MODERATE CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS REMAINS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO THE TROUGH/POSSIBLE LOW WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A HINT OF A SURFACE LOW. ONLY THE CMC MODEL SHOWS A DECENT CLOSED LOW ALONG WITH 25 KT WINDS. HAND EDITS WERE USED TO MATCH THE LATEST NHC FORECAST POTENTIAL OF THIS TROUGHING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT E OF THE TROUGH/POSSIBLE LOW BY 24 HOURS. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...THE REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE SE OF THE SE U.S. TAKING THE REMNANTS MORE TO THE NE BY 48 HOURS. RIDGING WILL THEN DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE WATERS N OF 27N LATE MON INTO TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.