000
AGXX40 KNHC 271826
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
226 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF WILL DRIFT EASTWARD 
TOWARD THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH SUN. A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE GULF REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT
NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT NIGHT DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE REGION WILL BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TODAY.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 3 FT OR
LESS THROUGH WED...EXCEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN PART WHERE SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 3-5 FT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. 
NWPS WAS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHT AND WAVE PERIOD.

PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE N AND THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN 
LOW PRES MAINTAINS FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH HIGHEST WINDS AS USUAL NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA.

T.S. DORIAN CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL N ATLC AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. AN EARLIER OSCAT
PASS AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS
BARELY CLOSED...AND DORIAN COULD OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AT ANY TIME.
CURRENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THAT DORIAN WILL WEAKEN
INTO A REMNANT LOW OR STRONG TROPICAL WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SUN NIGHT. MARINE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN
SUN THROUGH WED IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...               
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. 
NWPS WAS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHT AND WAVE PERIOD.

WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL LIFT NE
AND DISSIPATE N OF AREA TODAY. HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 28N WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED WHILE WHAT IS LEFT OF T.S. DORIAN AS A
REMNANT LOW OR STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVES RAPIDLY W-NW S OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED. PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN OR TROPICAL WAVE AND HIGH
PRES TO THE N WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF 20-30 KT WITH MAX SEAS OF
12-13 FT MOVING WWD AND IN TANDEM WITH THIS SYSTEM.

REFER TO LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/
WTNT24 KNHC AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON TROPICAL STORM DORIAN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.