000
AGXX40 KNHC 241849
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
249 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS.

WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH MINOR INCREASE
IN WINDS N OF 28N TODAY AND THU DIMINISHING BY THU NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE HIGH PRES CENTER 1019 MB OVER NE GULF WATERS EXTEND E-W 
RIDGE ALONG 26N TO TEXAS COAST. LIGHT TO GENTLE BE-SE BREEZE S OF
26N AND MODERATE W BREEZE N OF 26N WITH OCCASIONAL GUST ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT. LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS AS RIDGE REMAINS
STATIONARY THROUGH END OF FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. 
NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHT AND WAVE PERIOD.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W MOVE W ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
LATE THU. ELSEWHERE...RIDGE ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES CENTER 1019 MB 
TIGHTENS PRES GRADIENT WITH LOW PRES 1006 MB OVER COLOMBIA
RESULTING IN STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE E WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND
PART OF WESTERN CARIBBEAN ZONES. SEAS BUILD TO 13 FT AND EASTERLY 
SWELL EXTEND WELL W OF 80W. AS TROPICAL STORM DORIAN MAKES ITS
WAY W...RIDGE RETREATS N ALLOWING GRADIENT TO EASE AND DIMINISH
WINDS SAT AND SUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...WINDS ON NORTH EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SHIFT N TO NE AND INCREASE AS DORIAN APPROACHES...BUT
ALTHOUGH TRACK CARRIES CERTAIN CONFIDENCE...ITS INTENSITY DOES NOT
AND DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION MAY CHANGE. 

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...               
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COLD FRONT CLIPS NW CORNER OF BASIN WED BRINGING FRESH TO
STRONG SW WINDS N OF 29N W OF 72W THROUGH LATE THU. ELSEWHERE
HIGH PRES RIDGE BLOCKS FRONT FROM SOUTHWARD INTRUSION AND MAINTAINS
GENTLE TO MODERATE SE-S BREEZE ACROSS REMAINDER OF BASIN THROUGH
EARLY SUN. RIDGE EXPECTED TO RETREAT N AS TROPICAL STORM DORIAN
TRACKS W ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. DORIAN APPROACHES 65W VERY
LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING N-NE AND INCREASING.
SEAS BUILD TO 8 FT EXTREME SE CORNER LATE IN PERIOD.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.