000
AGXX40 KNHC 240800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHT AND WAVE PERIOD.

A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SW FL TO THE NE TX COAST WILL CHANGE
LITTLE EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT HIGH PRES CENTERS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE RIDGE AXIS. SURFACE WINDS ALONG AND N OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
E OF THE INTERMITTENT HIGH CENTERS. THE E-SE RETURN FLOW S OF THE
RIDGE IS AT 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT OCCASIONALLY REACHING 20 KT
NEAR THE COAST. LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS OFF THE NW COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA CAN BE EXPECTED EACH EVENING. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHT AND WAVE PERIOD.

A TROPICAL WAVE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL PANAMA IS WEAKENING
AND BECOMING DIFFUSE AS IT MOVES W THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. RIDGING N OF THE AREA CENTERED N OF
PUERTO RICO AND E OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IS BUILDING OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO
INCREASE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0248 UTC
INDICATED WINDS TO 30 KT ALREADY IN PLACE. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SHOWED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N80W N OF THE PANAMA CANAL...ALTHOUGH IT IS
LIKELY REACHING 10 FT A LITTLE FARTHER E GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE TRADES IN THE AREA. WINDS TO 20 KT ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...A REGULAR OVERNIGHT EVENT LATELY...DIMINISHING
TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING THE DAY. THESE WILL LIKELY PEAK AROUND TO 20
TO 25 KT TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE AND LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SAT...A DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE EASTERN ATLC
WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAY FORM A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRES EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...POSSIBLY TO
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AS IT MOVES WNW ACROSS THE ATLC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...REACHING 55W NEAR 19N BY LATE SAT...AND WITHIN
180 NM NE OF THE ANEGADA PASSAGE BY LATE SAT. THE MAIN AREA FOR
STRONG WINDS WILL BE N OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW...FACING HIGH PRES
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...BUT IN
PARTICULAR OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S
OF 18N AND W OF 55W.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...               
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STATIONARY HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 27N ACROSS BASIN
THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD BLOCKS A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM
FURTHER SOUTHBOUND INTRUSION. FRESH SW BREEZE MAY BE NOTED ALONG
31N TONIGHT AND WED. OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE BREEZE
EXPECTED S OF RIDGE AXIS AND MODERATE TO FRESH W-SW BREEZE IN
FORECAST N OF RIDGE AXIS.

A DEEPENING LOW PRES  OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS MAY FORM A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW
PRES EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...POSSIBLY TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...AS IT MOVES WNW ACROSS THE ATLC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...REACHING 55W NEAR 19N BY LATE SAT...AND WITHIN 180 NM NE OF
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE BY LATE SAT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.