000
AGXX40 KNHC 231839
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
239 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTEND ALONG 26N PROVIDING GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE
BREEZE S OF AXIS AND LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE TO ITS N. SEAS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN UNDER 4 FT THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS IN FULL
AGREEMENT OF THIS SCENARIO WITH LITTLE VARIATIONS. AT ITS WORST
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ALONG TEXAS COAST MIGHT REACH FRESH BREEZE
CATEGORY.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA N OF 17N ABOUT TO
BE TRUMPED BY ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDING E-W JUST N OF ISLANDS AND
EXTENDING INTO GULF OF MEXICO. RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT
TO ITS SOUTH AS LOW PRES 1008 MB REMAINS OVER COAST OF COLOMBIA.
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND W
CARIBBEAN. WINDS MAY REACH NEAR GALE FORCE WITH SEAS TO 11 FT
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN WITH APPROACH OF
VIGOROUS LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...SAT AND SUN TO
TROPICAL ATLC ZONES.

LOW PRES IN EASTERN ATLC UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM
THU THROUGH FRI...BUT THEN ENTER REGION OF ADVERSE CONDITIONS. 
EITHER WAY IT IS BOUND TO WEAKEN ATLC RIDGE N OF CARIBBEAN
DIMINISH WINDS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...               
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STATIONARY HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 27N ACROSS BASIN
THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD BLOCKS WEAK COLD FRONT FROM FURTHER
SOUTHBOUND INTRUSION. FRESH SW BREEZE MAY BE NOTED ALONG 31N
TONIGHT AND WED. OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE BREEZE
EXPECTED S OF RIDGE AXIS AND MODERATE TO FRESH W-SW BREEZE IN
FORECAST N OF RIDGE AXIS. 

LOW PRES AFFECTING TROPICAL ATLC LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SW N ATLC TILL WELL BEYOND THE WEEKEND. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.