000 AGXX40 KNHC 191755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 29N91W IS SHIFTING SLOWLY WNW WITH TIME WITH AN ASSOCIATED BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE-SW FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO NEAR 23N95W ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT WITH SE-S WINDS AT 10-15 WELL TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT NW OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS W THE BAND OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE E OF THE LOW WILL ALSO SHIFT W WITH THE AREA OF DEEPEST ENHANCED CONVECTION NOW OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WITHIN 150 NM OF 27N86W. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH A NE-SW RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM N FL TO NE MEXICO SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON WITH E-SE WINDS AT 15-20 KT/SEAS 3-5 FT...OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AND NE-E 20-25 KT/SEAS 4-6 FT...OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR 27N84W ON MON WITH THE RIDGE THEN EXTENDING W TO THE TX COASTAL BEND WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING OVER THE S AND W WATERS THEN SUPPORTING MOSTLY E-SE 10- 15 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT INCREASING TO NE-E 15-20 KT ALONG THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY STRONG SURFACE WINDS SO CONTINUED PREVIOUS PRACTICE OF BLENDING GFS WITH ECMWF INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS OVER CARIBBEAN BASIN. QUASI-STATIONARY ATLC HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH PULSES TO 30 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH EVENING INTO LATE NIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO MAX AT 13 FT NEAR 13N76W. A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE S OF 17N ALONG 83.5W HAS BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 20 KT ACCOMPANIED BY ENE-ESE 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT. THE WAVE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION TO THE S OF 12N BUT A CLUSTER WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS AFTERNOON AND W OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W AT 20-25 KT ALONG 76W...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY E-SE 20 KT WINDS. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY AS THE UPPER LEVELS ABOVE THE WAVE ARE MUCH DRIER TODAY. GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ACROSS THE TROPICS EXCEPT THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 5 KT HIGHER ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA... SO CONTINUED PREVIOUS PRACTICE OF BLENDING GFS WITH ECMWF INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE S-CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE NOT HANGING ONTO THE WAVE ON SAT WHEN IT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE CAY SAL BANK/FL STRAITS AREA...SO WAVE WAS DROPPED N OF CUBA FROM MARINE PROGS. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AT 28N57W WILL HAVE A RIDGE ANCHORED W TO THE FL COAST AT 28N THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. SLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF 15-20 KT EXPECTED ALONG 31N MOSTLY AT NIGHT. E WINDS AT 15-20 KT/SEAS 3-6 FT EXPECTED S OF 23N...EXCEPT ESE AT 20-25 KT/SEAS 4-8 FT NEAR ATLC APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE EACH EVENING THROUGH SUN. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.