000 AGXX40 KNHC 020757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 357 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GEFS DAY 3-6 HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR JULY WITH MEAN AXIS ALONG 90W REMAINS THE GOVERNING FEATURE OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT RETROGRADES SLOWLY W. STALLED STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA THROUGH 27N90W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE. PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM APPALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT/TROUGH AND ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA STILL MAINTAINING MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF E OF 87W WITH E GULF BUOYS REPORTING 15 KT WINDS AND SEAS 4-5 FT...STILL ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE THE MWW3 GUIDANCE. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADES...ATLC RIDGE BUILDS INTO ERN GULF AS OLD TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS CAPTURED IN MONSOONAL CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND YUCATAN DRIFTS WNW INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE E OF TROUGHING THAT WILL PREVAIL NE TO SW ACROSS THE BASIN. GFS APPEARS TO BE OVER FORECASTING SE WINDS LOCALLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULLSEYE THERE. MWW3 SEAS ARE AFFECTED AS WELL WITH 8-9 FT SEAS DEPICTED. THEREFORE LEANED TOWARD OFFICIAL INHERITED FCST IN THE MODEL BLEND TO TEMPER OUT THE EXTREMES. SURFACE TROUGH MOVES W OFF YUCATAN LATER TODAY AND MERGE INTO OVERALL BROAD LLVL WEAKNESS ACROSS W GULF NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS NOT IN EXACT AGREEMENT ON TROUGH AXIS WITH ECMWF FASTEST AND INLAND BY FRI NIGHT AND THE NAVGEM/NOGAPS RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A SFC LOW. OVERALL NWP MODELS AGREE IN LLVL VORTICITY SHIFTING INTO NW GULF AND INTO TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH UKMET AND GFS LEAVING WEAK LOW ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE WED-FRI. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED NEXT FEW DAYS FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. LLVL TROUGHING ACROSS YUCATAN AND E GULF COMBINING WITH ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE TO PRODUCE A GENERAL E-SE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN AND SLY RETURN FLOW E OF TROUGH AXIS IN YUCATAN CHANNEL. A 0204 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED A SOLID AREA OF E TO SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W. BUOY 42056 NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REPORTED STEADY SE WINDS OF 15 KT. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING QUICKLY W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT REACHES SW PERIPHERY OF ATLC RIDGE. AS NOTED ABOVE LLVL WIND SURGE WAS CAPTURED BY THE ASCAT PASS. AS MID LAT UPPER PATTERN ACROSS ATLC AND N AMERICA SHIFTS SLIGHTLY W NEXT FEW DAYS AND THIS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES FARTHER NW...PRES GRAD WILL RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS BASIN TO BRING RETURN TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND NOCTURNAL MAX TO 30 KT OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA TUE NIGHT. WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON WED. TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC RACING AT 20-25 KT PER LATEST GUIDANCE AND WILL REACH LESSER ANTILLES WED AND BEGIN TO BLOCK PRES GRADIENT AND REDUCE TRADES TO ITS W AND SW AND IT RACES ACROSS CARIB...REACHING 68W BY 00Z FRI. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE TRACKING MORE TO THE NORTH WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREATER ANTILLES AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 31W/32W FORECAST TO REACH 50W LATE THU AND INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FRI...AND WILL AMPLIFY STRONGLY ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC SW TO NW BAHAMAS AND N FLORIDA. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGH IN E GULF AND HIGH RESULTING IN NOW MORE MODERATE SLY FLOW W OF 77W ACROSS THE ATLC. ACTIVE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF CENTRAL AND NE FL UNDER LLVL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE THROUGH TODAY. MODELS SHOW THE GULF TROUGHING BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED AND RETROGRADING ALLOWING THE MODERATE WINDS IN THE W PORTION OF THE BASIN TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA BY LATE WED. AS RIDGE SHIFTS SW...FLOW ACROSS W PORTIONS WILL BECOME SE...WHILE REMAINDER OF AREA IS DOMINATED BY ELY FLOW. PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CARIB WED THROUGH FRI WILL ENHANCE TRADES TO 20-25 KT ACROSS WATERS S OF 23N WITH AND BEHIND WAVE...WITH SEAS BUILDING 7-8 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.