000 AGXX40 KNHC 011910 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GEFS DAY 3-6 WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS S ACROSS N CENTRAL GULF TO NEAR NEAR 26N90W THEN NE INTO WRN PANHANDLE...WHERE IT IS STARTING TO DRIFT W. WEAK INDUCED TROUGH IS TO THE SE OF THIS BOUNDARY AND UNDERNEATH MID-UPPER VORT CENTERED NEAR 25.5N86W AND IS BECOMING CUT OFF FROM NW FLOW IN BASE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS E TWO-THIRDS OF U.S. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG SLY FLOW ACROSS SW N ATLC W OF 77W AND E GULF . DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS IS AGAIN ENHANCING THIS FLOW TO 20-25 KT IN SPOTS ALONG W COASTAL WATERS PER RECENT ASCAT PASS. NE GULF BUOYS NOW AROUND 5 FT AND STILL 2-3 FT ABOVE WW3. UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS MID LATS TO SHIFT SLOWLY W NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARYSHIFTING NW AND INLAND AND ATLC RIDGE BUILDING INTO ERN GULF AS OLD TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAVE BECOME CAPTURED IN MONSOONAL CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND YUCATAN DRIFTS W-NW INTO GULF. GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE E OF TROUGHING THAT WILL PREVAIL NE TO SW ACROSS THE BASIN...AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MODELS CONTINUETO UNDERFORECAST THE SLY FLOW ACROSS E GULF NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IN TURN THE SEAS AS WELL. TROUGH SHIFTING GRADUALLY W OFF YUCATAN TUE WILL SHIFT NW AND INTO LLVL WEAKNESS ACROSS W GULF NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS NOT IN EXACT AGREEMENT ON TROUGH AXIS WITH ECMWF FASTEST AND INLAND BY FRI NIGHT. MODELS DO AGREE IN LLVL VORTICITY SHIFTING INTO NW GULF AND INTO TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH UKMET AND GFS LEAVING WEAK LOW ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE WED-FRI. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED NEXT FEW DAYS FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. LLVL TROUGHING ACROSS YUCATAN AND E GULF COMBINING WITH ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE TO PRODUCE A GENERAL E-SE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN AND SLY RETURN FLOW E OF TROUGH AXIS IN YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHERE RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED SLY WINDS 20-25 KT N OF 19N. THIS SCENARIO SHIFTING MAX SEAS OFF CARIB SRN JET TYPICAL LOCATION AND INTO A MORE CENTRALIZED LOCATION NEARER TO 14N. SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVING QUICKLY W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB AND BECOMING DIFFUSE AS IT REACHES SW PERIPHERY OF ATLC RIDGE...BUT WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND LLVL WIND SURGE TO CONTINUE NW ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES W OF 70W AND NW CARIB NEXT 36 HOURS. AS MID LAT UPPER PATTERN ACROSS ATLC AND N AMERICA SHIFTS SLIGHTLY W NEXT FEW DAYS AND THIS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES FARTHER NW...PRES GRAD WILL RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS BASIN TO BRING RETURN TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND NOCTURNAL MAX TO 30 KT OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA TUE NIGHT. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC RACING AT 9-10 DEG PER DAY PER LATEST GUIDANCE AND WILL REACH LESSER ANTILLES BY AROUND 12Z WED AND BEGIN TO BLOCK PRES GRADIENT AND REDUCE TRADES TO ITS W AND SW AND IT RACES ACROSS CARIB...REACHING 68-69W BY AROUND 12Z THU. THIS IS AN ATYPICAL WAVE WITH STRONGEST SIGNAL 15-20N AND MORE ASSOCIATED WITH MID LAT SYSTEM THAT CAME OFF AFRICA IN TANDEM WITH A WAVE. REGARDLESS...THE NORTH ISLANDS LIKELY TO RECEIVE MOST FORCING AND WEATHER WITH THIS WAVE. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NOW OFF AFRICA FORECAST TO REACH 50W LATE THU AND INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FRI...AND WILL AMPLIFY STRONGLY ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC SW TO NW BAHAMAS AND N FLORIDA. AS MENTIONED IN GULF SECTION...PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGH IN E GULF AND HIGH INDUCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SLY FLOW W OF 77W ACROSS THE ATLC...THAT WAS ENHANCED YDA AND IS AGAIN TODAY BY DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...YIELDING AREAS OF 20-25 KT AND GUSTS AOA 30 KT. ACTIVE CNVTN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF CENTRAL AND NE FL UNDER LLVL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE THROUGH TUE. MODELS SHOW THE GULF TROUGHING BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED AND WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO SHIFT SW. AS RIDGE SHIFTS SW...FLOW ACROSS W PORTIONS WILL BECOME SE...WHILE REMAINDER OF AREA IS DOMINATED BY ELY FLOW. PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CARIB WED THROUGH FRI WILL ENHANCE TRADES TO 20-25 KT ACROSS WATERS S OF 23N WITH AND BEHIND WAVE...WITH SEAS BUILDING 7-8 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.