000 AGXX40 KNHC 291846 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 246 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 23N TO THE NE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS IS DISPLACED SOUTHWARD FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DUE TO A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND 1 TO 2 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE FAR NE GULF WHERE DYNAMIC ALOFT ARE ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION AND MAINTAINING 10 TO 15 KT WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NW GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUN. THE SUPPORTING UPPER PATTERN STALLS AND BECOMES MORE BROAD EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEAVING LIGHT SW TO W WINDS ALOFT. THE FRONT STALLS MON AS STARTS TO LOSE DEFINITION...DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER BY MID WEEK. MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL TRACK NW THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A TROUGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL FORM A WEAK LOW PRES AREA IN THE FAR SW GULF BY MID WEEK. THE RIDGE ALONG 23N WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWING THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH EMERGING OUT OF YUCATAN. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL INTO MID WEEK. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF BY LATE WED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH/WAVE AND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN...BETWEEN A RIDGE N OF THE AREA AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN REACHING FROM GRAND CAYMAN TO CENTRAL PANAMA. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS FROM 14 UTC INDICATED THESE WINDS MAY BE STARTING TO DIMINISH HOWEVER...AHEAD OF A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 22N65W...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL VENEZUELA. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRAMES THE AREAS OF CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN...WITH NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN TROPICAL WAVE...AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERING THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS AND AS FAR EAST AS 55W. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE WESTERN WAVE LOSING DEFINITION AS IT DRIFTS W OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EVENTUALLY AS A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERN WAVE WILL SIMILARLY DEAMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE WESTERN WAVE BY MID WEEK OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE BY MID WEEK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND WAVE. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1028 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 31N59W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MORNING SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS N OF 29N W OF 75W...BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO THE WEST. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...WITH UP TO 8 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS N OF 29N W OF 75W. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE NOTED OVER THE BAHAMAS AS WELL...ENHANCED BY A SHARP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER NASSAU. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED AND WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING THESE WINDS N OF 29N W OF 75W TO DIMINISH AND THE RIDGE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD. S OF 25N...MODERATE TRADES WILL FRESHEN THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.