000
AGXX40 KNHC 260650
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
250 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH 
GFS/ECMWF FOR MARINE WINDS AND WW3/NWPS FOR SEA HEIGHTS. HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND GOOD AGREEMENT OF MODELS.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. 
HIGH PRES RIDGE IN N GULF WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS 
ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH SUN. THE RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY 
SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING AS A 
WEAK HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FRI. TAIL END OF WEAK 
COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SAT...WITH WINDS 
INCREASING AND SHIFTING W-SW NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 23N. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH 
GFS/ECMWF FOR MARINE WINDS AND WW3/NWPS FOR SEA HEIGHTS. HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND GOOD AGREEMENT OF MODELS.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH NE WINDS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN N OF PANAMA AND MAINLY MODERATE E-NE WINDS ELSEWHERE. 
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS IN THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THU NIGHT. A PAIR OF 
TROPICAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ARE BECOMING LESS 
ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE FURTHER WEST. EXPECT THE STRONGER OF THE 
TWO...A WAVE ALONG 65W...TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
THROUGH THU THEN BECOME DIFFUSE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI 
THROUGH SUN. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL 
REACH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS FRI WITH AN INCREASE IN NE WINDS 
AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7-8 FT BY SAT.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...               
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH 
GFS/ECMWF FOR MARINE WINDS AND WW3/NWPS FOR SEA HEIGHTS. HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND GOOD AGREEMENT OF MODELS.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 30N69W WITH 
LIGHT WINDS. ATLC RIDGE ALONG 30N DOMINATES ENTIRE REGION WITH 
GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. RIDGE WILL BE 
FORCED SOUTHWARD BY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OFF CAROLINAS COAST 
THU NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW W OF 77W AS 
TAIL END OF COLD FRONT APPROACHES 31N W OF 76W SAT AND SUN. TWO 
TROPICAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH CARIBBEAN ARE HAVING LITTLE IMPACT 
ON WINDS AND SEAS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BASIN.

$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.