000 AGXX40 KNHC 140802 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 402 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF. A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH RESIDES ACROSS THE E CENTRAL GULF THIS MORNING WITH ANTICYLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN...AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT... EXCEPT ACROSS W AND SW PORTIONS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING S ACROSS GULF COAST STATES WITH STRONG TSTMS ALONG IT NOW REACHING COASTAL COUNTIES OF MS-AL-NW FL WITH STILL A FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND INCREASED WLY SFC FLOW TO 15 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF THIS CNVTN. FRONT FORECAST TO REACH NE GULF COASTS BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH WEAKENING UPPER SUPPORT FOR INTENSE CNVTN SEEN THU. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FROM SE LA TO N FL AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MON BEFORE CENTRAL CARIB TROPICAL WAVE REACHES YUCATAN CHANNEL MON AND THE PENINSULA MON NIGHT...WITH NORTHERN PORTION CONTINUING W-NW TO ALONG ABOUT 92W BY TUE EVENING. AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THIS WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY ENERGETIC MID LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT VERY ACTIVE CNVTN WITH AND BEHIND THIS WAVE TO SPREAD ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN MON NIGHT AND TUE AND ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT AS NARROWING UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS NW AND RIDGING SHIFTS IN JUST AHEAD OF WAVE. GLOBAL MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH INCREASE IN WINDS AS WAVE ENTERS BASIN THROUGH TUE...WITH E TO SE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KT ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS BY LATE TUE. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND 00Z WED AS GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH END OF WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER GLOBAL MODELS IN TRACKING WAVE W-NW AND INTO MEXICO THROUGH FRI-SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG ABOUT 69W ATTM MOVING QUICKLY W ACROSS BASIN...WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS...AND A SECOND LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL ELY PERTURBATION TRAILING IT ALONG ABOUT 56W ATTM. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE ACCOMPANIED BY 30-35 KT WINDS AT AROUND H700 AND WILL TRIGGER VERY ACTIVE CNVTN AS THEY MOVE WWD ACROSS THE BASIN NEXT FEW DAYS. GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH LEADING WAVE...WITH WAVE ALONG 85W BY 72 HRS. AS THIS LEADING WAVE REACHES W CARIB SECOND WAVE WILL RIDE UP BACKSIDE AND INTO HISPANIOLA BY SAT AFTERNOON FOR VERY ACTIVE WEATHER THERE. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY SHOWING FRESH ELY TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB WITH A WEAK SURFACE SIGNAL OF TROPICAL WAVE S OF PUERTO RICO...AND BROAD ZONE OF 20 KT WINDS E OF LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING E OF 55W. WW3 A LITTLE UNDERDONE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC THERE WITH BUOYS 10-11 FT AND RECENT ALTIMETER VERIFYING THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE SWH FORECAST THERE UP A FOOT OR SO NEXT 12 HOURS...MORE IN LINE WITH UKMET. AS BOTH WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE CARIB THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB N OF 15N...WITH AREAS OF 20-25 KT S OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...EXPANDING S AND W BY MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST GFS. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG ATLC RIDGE FOR MID JUNE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY PAST 24 HOURS...IN ADVANCE OF E COAST COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SINK S...EXTENDING FROM 31N64W TO CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA BY SAT EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING ACROSS NE PORTIONS SUN. FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT N OF 27N SAT AND SUN. NEW HIGH PRES FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS S OF 22N SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BETWEEN THE ATLC HIGH AND TROPICAL WAVES MIGRATING W-NW THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.