000
AGXX40 KNHC 131833
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
233 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS 96 HOURS THEN WW3 THROUGH
DAY 7. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE CAROLINAS IS COMING INTO
PHASE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO PUSH THROUGH THE NE GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
LATE FRI THROUGH SAT...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL GULF AND CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE SAT. A 1018 MB SURFACE
HIGH PRES AREA NEAR 27N88W WILL SHIFT SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
FRI...THEN DISSIPATE SAT AS THE FRONT PENETRATES INTO THE AREA.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SAT INTO
SUN MAINTAINING A WEAK PRES PATTERN WITH MINIMAL WINDS AND SEAS
INTO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FAR S CENTRAL GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY NEXT WEEK..AND INTO THE FAR SW GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW MODERATE
E TO SE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS BY TUE ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN
GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE IS SLIGHTLY MORE
AMPLIFIED IN THE GFS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                      
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF. TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS THROUGH 120
HOURS THEN WW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1430 UTC THIS MORNING INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT
WINDS OFF COLOMBIA...DUE TO A TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND HIGH PRES N OFTHE
AREA. FARTHER EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN GULF.
THIS FEATURE PRESENTED WELL ON THE BARBADOS AND GUADELOUPE
SOUNDINGS FROM 12 UTC THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE
AND HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WAS SUPPORTING 20 TO 25 KT
OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
WHERE RECENT BUOY AND ALTIMETER REPORTS INDICATED SEAS TO 10 FT.
THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT
AND SUN...THEN START TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER YUCATAN ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE TROPICAL WAVE TO AMPLIFY...BEFORE
SLOWING DOWN AND DRIFTING NW THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS W...BUT THEN INCREASE FROM THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS N OF THE AREA. FORECAST IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST. LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN GFS AND ECMWF OUTPUT EXCEPT GFS IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST 
GFS AND ECMWF. WW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE ALONG 27N WILL WEAKEN WHILE SLIDING E-SE TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION FRI. THE FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM 31N74W TO CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA FRI EVENING...
FROM JUST SE OF BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SAT EVENING...
DISSIPATING ALONG 27N BY SUN EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW WILL
PRECEDE THE FRONT N OF 27N SAT AND SUN. NEW HIGH PRES FROM THE N
CENTRAL ATLC WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE NE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS S OF 22N
BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE MIGRATING W THROUGH
THE CARIBBEAN.

$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.