000
AGXX40 KNHC 100705
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
305 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST GFS 
AND ECMWF WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC. SOUTHEASTERLY
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN WITH 1-3 FT ACROSS
THE NE THIRD OF THE GULF...WITH 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. A NEW HIGH WILL
BREAK OFF FROM THIS RIDGE...FORMING OVER THE NE GULF BY TONIGHT
(MON NIGHT) SLOWLY SETTLING TO THE VERY CENTRAL GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEK. AS THE HIGH MIGRATES SLOWLY TO THE SW...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO MAINLY LIGHT...WITH SEAS BEING 1-3 FT BASIN WIDE
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                      
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST 
GFS AND ECMWF WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RIDGING WILL PERSIST N OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... 
AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE INCLUDING THE TROPICAL N 
ATLC. EXPECT DIURNAL VARIABILITY OF WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
TO 20 KT LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH FRI. THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH THE RIDGING BACK OFF TO THE E.

THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W POKING
OUT ALONG THE TROPICAL N ATLC/E CARIBBEAN BOUNDARY...WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION NOW MOVING INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. THIS WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ENOUGH IN THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS WEEK TO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO CLOSE
TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A WEAKER TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST 
GFS AND ECMWF WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA DOMINATES 
THE BASIN...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W WILL MOVE NW AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...GRADUALLY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT
TROUGH NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING AT
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE. SURFACE AND REMOTE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW FRESH WINDS NEAR THE WAVE...WHILE BUOY OBSERVATIONS STILL
INDICATE 8-9 FT SEAS SE OF THE WAVE...A FOOT OR SO HIGHER THAN
AVAILABLE WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE. WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT THREATENS TO
BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE...DROPPING IN FROM
THE NW FROM SE GEORGIA LATE THU INTO FRI...SLOWLY MOVING E-SE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.