000 AGXX40 KNHC 060701 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 301 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. TROPICAL STORM ANDREA HAS FORMED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WAS CENTERED NEAR 26.0N 86.3W AT 11 P.M. WED NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA WERE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT AT THAT TIME WITH MAXIMUM SEAS NEAR 16 FT. OTHERWISE...LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING SATELLITE DERIVED SURFACE WINDS...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS COVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEAS RANGE FROM 8-10 FT OVER THE NE GULF...5-7 FT OVER THE SE GULF...3-6 FT OVER THE NW GULF...AND 1-3 FT OVER THE SW GULF. TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE TODAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TONIGHT. RAIN SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF E OF 87W AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS TROPICAL STORM ANDREA SHIFTS FURTHER FROM THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE FAR N GULF ON SAT AND WILL STALL OVER THIS AREA AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME DIFFUSE. LATEST OBSERVATIONS DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS RANGE FROM 8-10 FT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 5-7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...THEN MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN LATE SAT THROUGH SUN. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO HAVE A WELL DEFINED SURFACE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS THE WAVE MOVES DUE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE WITH SEAS IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS GENERALLY E OF 70W ROUGHLY ALONG 29N WITH BROAD TROUGH AROUND TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA W OF 70W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART. SEAS RANGE FROM 3-5 FT OVER THE NRN PORTION...AND 4-6 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS...WHILE LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT PREVAILS W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRI THEN ONCE AGAIN DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO TROPICAL STORM ANDREA MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA. TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL CLIP THE NW PART OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA WILL DECREASE FRI AND SAT AS ANDREA MOVES FURTHER FROM THE AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRI. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.