000 AGXX40 KNHC 031853 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 253 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH TUE...THEN LOW TO AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO POSITION AND INTENSITY OF FORECAST SURFACE LOW. RATIO OF BLENDS EVEN BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND GFS AND SLIGHTER HIGHER WITH THE ECMWF. RIDGE OF HIGH PRES HAS STARTED TO SHIFTED TO THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE GULF AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MAKE HEADWAY ACROSS THE SE U.S. THE MAIN FEATURE OF ISSUE REMAINS TO BE A SURFACE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NE TO NEAR 27N86W. THIS FEATURE IS PART OF A PERSISTENT BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SATELLITE DERIVED SURFACE WINDS...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF...EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF WATERS. SEAS RANGE FROM 1-3 FT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WATERS TO 4-6 FT OVER THE SE GULF WATERS...EXCEPT TO AROUND 7 FT IN THE TSTMS ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER THE E AND SE GULF WATERS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NNE THROUGH WED BY WHICH TIME A LOW PRES FEATURE SHOULD HAVE DEVELOPED OR BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ON THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE S CENTRAL GULF N OR NE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BY EARLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES COME MORE INTO AGREEMENT IN HAVING A MORE DEFINITIVE LOW NEAR THE POSITION OF 26N88W WITH A PRES OF ABOUT 1006-1008 MB. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THAT THIS FORECAST LOW THEN TRACKS NEWD TOWARDS THE VICINITY OF N FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND INTO THE SE U.S. IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH DIGS INTO THE SE UNITED STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE RIGHT IN THE RECENT RUNS WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW NEWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF...BUT STILL REMAINS THE OUTLIER IN TERMS OF BEING THE FARTHEST TO THE W IN TAKING THE LOW MORE OVER THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON FRI. THE INTERACTION OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD HELP INTENSIFY THE LOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LATTER RUNS OF THE GFS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKE THE ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO THE 10M WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE UKMET AND CANADIAN REMAIN QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WINDS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THESE TWO MODELS AS THEY MAY ACTUALLY VERIFY IN THE LONG TERM IF THE LOW DOES INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. IN ANY EVENT...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE ERN GULF... AND MOST OF THE S CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE NEXT DAYS WITH TSTMS AND SQUALLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN RELATED TO CONVECTION AND INDUCED GRADIENT TO THE SE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH...AND ITS ASSOCIATED FORECAST LOW. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ENTERING THE ERN CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ...AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS HAVE BEEN REVEALING...AND ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. THE 1436 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING DEPICTED SIMILAR OBSERVED CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE BASINS. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS RANGING FROM 8-10 FT OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 72W-74W TO 6-8 FT IN NE SWELLS OVER THE WRN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE 5-7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ...EXCEPT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE SEAS ARE LOWER IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. THE AREA OF HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THE BEGINNING TUE. THIS WILL DIMINISH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE FAR WRN CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR NEAR 8 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TIGHTENING PRES GRADEINT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CAN BE EXPECTEDWITH THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW IF IT INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALREADY NUMEROUS STRONG TSTMS THERE ARE KICKING UP THE SEAS TO 8 FT UNDER GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THAT AREA THROUGH TUE. THE ENVIRONMENT THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO ON WED WILL BE PARTICULARLY HOSTILE UNDER STRONG N-NE UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THE WAVER IS THEN FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WED MOST PROBABALY OVER THE WRN SECTION OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...LIKELY TO PRECEDED BY INCREASING NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS AS SHOWN IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG 33N...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS ROUGHLY ALONG 73W/74W FROM 23N TO 27N. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA...AND GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES FROM THIS MORNING CONFIRMED SUCH CONDITIONS. SEAS RANGE FROM 3-5 FT OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA AND 4-6 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS...WHILE LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT PREVAIL W OF THE BAHAMAS. A SMALL POCKET OF 6-7 FT SEAS IS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE BAHAMAS WILL LIFT NW THROUGH THU WHILE WEAKENING. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE WILL HELP MAINTAIN FRESH WINDS ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH...BUT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY LATE THU AS THE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NWD. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR PORTION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE WED NIGHT. THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL HELP INTENSIFY THE GRADIENT...AND BUILD THE SEAS SOME OVER THE NW WATERS FRI AND SAT AS IT INTERACTS WITH ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGING THAT BUILDS SW ACROSS BAHAMAS AND TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DURING FRI AND SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.