000 AGXX40 KNHC 030728 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 328 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...THEN LOW TO AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO POSITION AND INTENSITY OF FORECAST SURFACE LOW. HAVE BLENDED A BIT MORE OF THE GFS AND UKMET WITH THE ECMWF. RIDGE OF HIGH PRES HAS STARTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND IS NOW COVERING THE FAR N GULF OF MEXICO IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE SE GULF WATERS. THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SATELLITE DERIVED SURFACE WINDS...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF...EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF WATERS. SEAS RANGE FROM 1-3 FT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WATERS TO 4-6 FT OVER THE SE GULF WATERS. THE BIG PICTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS REMAINS THE SAME...TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT TO THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF ANY POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH MAY FORM OVER THE GULF. THE OVERALL SCENARIO DEPICTED BY EACH MODEL GUIDANCE IS TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY MIDWEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT TO THE NE INTO THE SE UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WHICH DIGS INTO THE SE UNITED STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED TO CROSS FROM ANYWHERE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA ACCORDING TO THE GFS TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS DEPICTED BY THE UKMET...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL AND ECMWF MODEL BETWEEN THESE POINTS. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE WEAKEST IN TERMS OF STRENGTH OF THE LOW. THE INTERACTION OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD HELP INTENSIFY THE LOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THUS...HAVE BLENDED MORE OF THE THE WINDS FROM THE GFS AND UKMET INTO THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE EXPECTED WINDS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THAT BEING SAID...THE LACK OF AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FROM THE MODEL SUITE IS KEEPING A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. WHICHEVER SOLUTION COMES TO PASS...EXPECT RAINY AND SQUALLY CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN GULF INTO FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE HAD MOVED INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS RANGE FROM 7-9 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 5-7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. THE AREA OF HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THE BEGINNING TUE. THIS WILL DIMINISH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR NEAR 8 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SINCE THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA EXPECTED IN THE GULF WATERS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS AT OR NEAR 8 FT OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. THE ENVIRONMENT THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO ON WED WILL BE PARTICULARLY HOSTILE AS IT REACHES THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH INTO BROAD TROUGHING AROUND THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL HELP TO DISPERSE THE ENERGY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE. THUS...ANTICIPATING THE TROPICAL WAVE TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY...AND LIKELY DISSIPATE THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG 33N...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM NEAR 23N73W TO 28N66W. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA...AND GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS RANGE FROM 3-5 FT OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA AND 4-6 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS WHILE SEAS 1-3 FT PREVAIL W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE BAHAMAS WILL LIFT NW THROUGH THU WHILE WEAKENING. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE WILL HELP MAINTAIN FRESH WINDS ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH...BUT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY LATE THU AS THE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NWD. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR PORTION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE THEN BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THU...AND BECOME DIFFUSE LATE THU INTO FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.