000 AGXX40 KNHC 010714 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 314 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE LOW. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE FAR N GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE REMNANTS OF FORMER PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE BARBARA HAVE DISSIPATED WHILE THE MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE SW GULF WATERS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH WIND FLOW NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEAS OVER THE GULF WATERS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. THE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE IT RETREATS EASTWARD SUN INTO MON. THE RETREATING RIDGE WILL ENABLE A WEAK COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS LATE SUN. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR 28N93W LATE MON...THEN DRIFT N AND INLAND TUE AND WED. THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF BARBARA WILL LINGER OVER THE SW GULF WATERS WHERE IT WILL COME INTO PHASE WITH A MID LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE TROUGH AND ENABLE FOR A SURFACE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF WATERS SUN. THERE REMAINS LARGE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...BUT EACH MODEL DEPICTS A GENERAL NE MOTION THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS REMAIN MUCH FASTER IN LIFTING THE SURFACE LOW NE COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND UKMET. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THIS EVOLUTION WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WATERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND FAR W CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS EXCEPT THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE FAR W CARIBBEAN WATERS...AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 18N. ELSEWHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DIMINISH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR NEAR 8 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ON SUN MORNING. THE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE AS THE HOSTILE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WILL WEAKEN THE WAVE...AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE IT ON WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS N OF THE AREA ALONG 32/33N. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 2-4 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE BAHAMAS SUN AND MON. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NNE THROUGH WED. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE WILL HELP MAINTAIN FRESH WINDS ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.