000 AGXX40 KNHC 261825 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 226 PM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH LATE MON...THEN A BLEND OF THE GFS/MWW3 WITH THE ECMWF/EC WAVE TUE THROUGH FRI WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRETCHED OUT FROM THE NE GULF TO THE SW GULF...EXTENDING FROM 1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE U.S. OHIO VALLEY. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE GULF INDICATE E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS...AND THE MORNING SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOWED PRIMARILY 3-5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE GULF...EXCEPT 1- 3 FT CLOSER TO THE W COAST OF FLORIDA AND NE GULF COASTAL WATERS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NEAR THE W GULF HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE GULF OFFSHORE ZONES. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH RESPECT TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SE GULF...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON INCREASING WINDS TO AT LEAST MODERATE TO FRESH...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION REMAINING MODERATE TO FRESH. A 50/50 BLEND OF THESE 2 SOLUTIONS WAS CONTINUED IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH LATE MON...THEN A BLEND OF THE GFS/MWW3 WITH THE ECMWF/EC WAVE TUE THROUGH FRI WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PRESENT...AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. AN EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN COLOMBIAN LOW PRES AND RIDGING N OF THE REGION EXISTS. 8-9 FT SEAS AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MON. SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC AT THE RECEIVING END OF A LONG NE-E FETCH GENERATION ZONE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE GFS REMAINS THE STRONGER SOLUTION WITH A LARGER AREA OF AT LEAST FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH LATE MON...THEN A BLEND THAT INCLUDES THE ECMWF AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE EC WAVE TUE THROUGH THU WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR 27N69W...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS DISSIPATED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAINING N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE ALONG 65W BY TONIGHT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN...ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS...EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE MORE SHALLOW BAHAMIAN WATERS. HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK... GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE E JUST N OF 31N. A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS INCREASING WINDS SLIGHTLY OVER THOSE AREAS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION REMAINS MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.