000
AGXX40 KNHC 251848
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
248 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH LATE MON...THEN A BLEND WITH 
THE ECMWF AND EC WAVE TUE THROUGH THU WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES N
OF THE AREA OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THIS HIGH TO THE SW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS IN THE E GULF AND
E-SE WINDS IN THE W GULF. BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA REPORT 1-3 FT
SEAS IN THE SE GULF...WITH 4-6 FT IN THE NW GULF. THE ONLY OTHER
PREVELANT SURFACE FEATURE IS A WEAK TROUGH IN THE SW GULF/BAY OF
CAMPECHE WHICH IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION IN ZONE GMZ023.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE MON WITH
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINING STABLE. BEYOND THAT...TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE E GULF WITH SURFACE TROUGHING
INDUCED. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASING WINDS TO
AT LEAST FRESH LEVELS. THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH WITH THE
TROUGHING...DEPICTING 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE E GULF TUE THROUGH
THU.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W... 
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH LATE MON...THEN A BLEND WITH 
THE ECMWF AND EC WAVE TUE THROUGH THU WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE AND REMOTE SENSED DATA REPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...ALONG WITH PRIMARILY 4-7 FT SEAS EXCEPT
1-3 FT IN THE LEE OF CUBA WHERE OFFSHORE FLOW IS PRESENT. SIMILAR
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE MON WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN THEREAFTER. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE WEAKER SOLUTION WITH
PRIMARILY MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS PERSISTING...WHILE THE
GFS FORECASTS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH LATE MON...THEN A BLEND WITH 
THE ECMWF AND EC WAVE TUE THROUGH THU WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS DRAPPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
FROM NEAR BERMUDA THROUGH 27N75W TO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH N OF 27N WITHIN 90-120 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXIST N
OF 27N AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH MAINLY VARIABLE 5-10 KT
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS SE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRES IS IN THE
PROCESS OF BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH AN EPISODE OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES 65W BY LATE SUN. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BECOMING CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA BY MID-
WEEK. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE BASIN MON...THEN MAY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF TROUGHING OVER THE SW PORTION.
 
$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.