000 AGXX40 KNHC 191827 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 227 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO...GFS BLENDED WITH NAM80 THROUGH 48 HOURS AND WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG ROUGHLY 27N ACROSS THE GULF. MORNING SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRES REMAINING OVER NW TEXAS. GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH A MID LEVEL PERTURBATION PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE...THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THU THEN LIFTING OUT THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN THROUGH WED AND WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE WESTERN GULF. FORECAST IS A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM80 THROUGH 48 HOURS TO CAPTURE LOCAL EFFECTS OFF YUCATAN AND THE ENHANCED FLOW OVER THE NW GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. OSCAT DATA FROM 04 UTC INDICATED WINDS 20 TO 25 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS HAS LIKELY DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT SINCE AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA INFLUENCING THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS WEAKENED. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY RETURN OFF COLOMBIA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILD AGAIN TO THE NORTH. FARTHER TO THE SE...A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 13N...AND WILL PUSH INTO TRINIDAD AND NE VENEZUELA LATER TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WILL ALLOW EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO FRESHEN ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE GLOBAL OR ENSEMBLE MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE PATTERN...FORECAST FOLLOWS GFS BLEND WITH THE OFFICIAL TO CAPTURE STRONGER WINDS STARTING OFF TODAY OFF COLOMBIA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THU AND FRI WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS SAGGING TO 29N E OF 70W AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE PAST 65W THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADES S OF 25N. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE A SWATH OF E TO SE WINDS TO 20 KT FROM DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THROUGH MON...THE AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS WILL EXPAND TO COVER ALL OF THE BAHAMAS TO THE NE FLORIDA COAST AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THROUGH MID WEEK...THE SITUATION IS LESS CLEAR TOWARD LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT DEPICTING A LOW PRES AREA FORMING OFF NE FLORIDA. IT HAS BACKED OFF A MORE AGGRESSIVE STANCE IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...AND NOW SHOWS THE LOW FORMING INLAND. FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK IS A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS SHOWING WEAK TROUGHING FORMING OFF NE FLORIDA BY FRI. .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.