000 AGXX40 KNHC 160753 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK 1019 MB HIGH NOW CENTERED ACROSS FAR NE GULF...WITHIN W END OF ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING WSW INTO GULF. THIS GENERAL ALIGNMENT EXPECTED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL YIELD FRESH SE TO S RETURN FLOW W OF 92W AND MODERATE FLOW E OF 92W. RECENT 0320 ASCAT PASS SHOWED AREA OF 20 KT E WINDS THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE WEAKENING SLOWLY AS WIND VEERS ESE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO RECENT FORECASTS WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR 20 KT PULSING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...AND DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT WITH THE YUCATAN NW COAST TROUGH. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW ACROSS NW CARIB WITH WEAK LLVL VORT APPROACHING E COAST OF YUCATAN. ENE WINDS 20 KT EXITING LEEWARD COAST OF CUBA AND WILL MAINTAIN VERY CHOPPY SEAS 3-5 FT THROUGH LATE MORNING. WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN HELPING TO COMBINE ZONE OF 20-25 KT TRADES ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS TO S OF 14N...WHERE RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES CONFIRM SEAS 8-10 FT. DEEP LAYERED CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH HAS SUNK S ALONG 20N AND ACTING TO ENHANCE SHALLOW CNVTN OCCURRING IN POOL OF MOISTURE ACROSS AND S OF HISPANIOLA AND PR THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE UNTIL TROUGH SHIFT FURTHER SE TONIGHT INTO FRI. ENE FLOW ACROSS W CARIB HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO E WITH REMAINDER OF CARIB W OF 75W EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PATTERN NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WITH FRONT WASHING OUT ACROSS ATLC OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRES ACROSS W ATLC WILL BUILD MODESTLY ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPAND FRESH TRADES TO ENTIRE SOUTHERN CORRIDOR OF CARIB TONIGHT INTO FRI. WINDS IN GULF OF HONDURAS BEGIN TO PULSE TO 20-25 KT AT NIGHT STARTING SAT NIGHT. LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG ABOUT 45W ATTM EXPECTED TO PASS S OF TROPICAL ATLC WATERS 48-72 HRS. NO SURFACE SIGNAL WITH THIS WAVE BUT WILL INDUCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LEADING TO ACTIVE WEATHER GENERALLY S OF 12N THU AFTERNOON-EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRESH ENE TRADES S OF 14N ACROSS THIS REGION WILL MAINTAIN SEAS 7-8 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS ATLC PAST 2 DAYS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH DAY 3 AS SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BLOCKED BY LARGE HIGH ACROSS NE ATLC. RECENT SCAT PASSES INDICATED LOW CENTER ALONG FRONT NEAR 28N THIS AFTERNOON HAS SINCE BECOME ELONGATED AND DRIFTING NE ALONG BOUNDARY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE WITH THIS BOUNDARY DUE TO HIGHER LAT LOW ALONG FRONT...WITH GFS AND UKMET NOW IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND ECMWF STRETCHING FRONT FARTHER E THROUGH DAY 3...AND AM FOLLOWING GFS MUCH CLOSER WITH CURRENT PACKAGE. FRONT TO MEANDER FROM CENTRAL ATLC ALONG ABOUT 30N56W SW TO SE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI BEFORE DIFFUSE FRONTAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO LIFT NW AS HIGH PRES AND ELY TRADES BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE E. RECENT 0138 ASCAT PASS SHOWED ENE WINDS AROUND 20 KT N OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH EXTREME SE BAHAMAS WHERE SEAS ARE 7-9 FT ATTM. LATE AFTERNOON ALTIMETER PASS ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE CAPTURED A MAX WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FT NEAR 30N WHILE BUOY 41049 HAS HELD AT 9 FT SINCE...WHICH IS 2 FT ABOVE WW3 AND ECWAVE GUIDANCE...AND WILL INCORPORATE. ZONE OF FRESH ENE WINDS N OF FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE S OF 24N THROUGH THE SRN BAHAMAS TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING FRI...WITH NARROW ZONE OF 8 FT SEAS LINGERING THERE E OF BAHAMAS. AS FRONT FINALLY WASHES OUT SAT AND WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE AREA W OF 60W...ELY TRADES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION S OF 25N THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH 15-20 KT TRADES AND SEAS 4-6 FT S OF 23N. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REASONING REMAINS INTACT FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.