000 AGXX40 KNHC 131736 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 136 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND INTO PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CHARLOTTE HARBOR TO 25N90W WHERE IT BECOMES BROADER AND QUASI-STATIONARY CONTINUING SW AND THEN S INTO A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS A COMBINATION OF A DIURNAL YUCATAN PENINSULA TROUGH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF. EXPECT THE COLD PORTION OF THE FRONT TO CONTINUE SE OF THE AREA ON TUE WITH REMNANTS OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH WED. A NW-SE RIDGE IS ALREADY BUILDING AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM NE TX TO SW FL LATE TONIGHT. AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS E ACROSS THE SE CONUS THE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTATED N-S FROM LA TO THE YUCATAN ON TUE NIGHT...ORIENTATED FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE NE TX COAST ON WED...AND SE-NW FROM CEDAR KEY FL TO THE MS DELTA ON THU AND FRI. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AT 10-15 KT ACROSS THE NW GULF LATE TONIGHT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE WED NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SE RETURN FLOW WILL PULSE TO 20 KT OVER THE NW WATERS ON WED...WHILE ENE WINDS WILL BE AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON THU THROUGH SAT WITH 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE NAM...ARE PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS JUST A TAD MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH...AND AREAL COVERAGE...OF THE MAXIMUM 20 KT WINDS. THUS CONTINUED TO BLEND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF ECMWF WITH GFS...TO TONE IT DOWN...WITH THE UPDATE BLEND MIXED INTO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS FOR CONTINUITY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND INTO PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE...20-25 KT...WILL CONTINUE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH FRI THEN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT WILL PASS E ACROSS THE CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO THE N OF 20N W OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND TUE...ACCOMPANIED BY E WINDS AT 10 KT BACKING GRADUALLY TO THE NE AND THEN INCREASING TO 10-15 KT EARLY TUE...FURTHER INCREASING TO 15-20 KT...SEAS 3-5 FT...ON TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THU MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON FRI-SAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND WASH OUT JUST NW OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. BLENDED LATEST GFS WITH SMALL PERCENTAGE OF ECMWF INTO PREVIOUS GRIDS AND ALSO MANUALLY ADJUSTED WINDS WHERE APPROPRIATE ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS- ECMWF BLEND INTO PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE A TUTT CONTINUES TO EXTEND NE TO SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL SUB- TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE EMBEDDED MID- TO UPPER CYCLONE PREVIOUSLY OF CONCERN NOW SHIFTED E OF 55W. THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH LEFT BEHIND IS STILL ORIENTED N-S ALONG 69W FROM 20N-28N. THERE IS STILL THE SLIGHTEST EVIDENCE OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THIS TROUGH AT 23.5N69W...BUT ACCOMPANIED BY CYCLONIC WINDS OF ONLY 5-10 KT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS LOW SHOULD FILL THIS EVENING WITH THE TROUGH DRIFTING W ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT INTO TUE. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL FL IS ABOUT TO BE RE-ENFORCED BY AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE TONIGHT AND ABSORB THE REMNANTS OF THE N-S TROUGH ON TUE...WITH THE MERGED BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW FROM BERMUDA TO HAITI ON TUE AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER THE FRONT LOSES MOMENTUM AND WILL SLOW FROM 31N59W TO TO PUERTO RICO ON WED...FROM 31N55W TO 21N65W TO THE MONA PASSAGE ON THU...THEN WASH OUT TO THE W OF 55W ON FRI. THE GRADIENT WELL E OF THE DISSIPATING SURFACE LOW/TROUGH ALONG 69W WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT TO THE N 29N WITHIN 540 NM E OF THE FRONT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING SOME ON WED AND THU AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SLOW. A RIDGE WILL BUILD INITIALLY SE FROM NE FL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON TUE...BUT QUICKLY BECOME ORIENTATED NE-SW ACROSS THE NW WATERS ON WED. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE ON WED NIGHT INTO THU AND MEANDER FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE POST-FRONTAL NLY FLOW WILL BE AT 20-25 KT N OF 28N WITHIN ABOUT 360 NM W OF THE FRONT ON TUE AND WED WHILE 15-20 KT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND BAHAMAS THROUGH THU EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE RIDGE THU-SAT WITH E WINDS AT 10-15 KT TO THE S OF 27N. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ONLY A TAD HIGHER ON STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL WINDS...THUS A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF ECMWF WAS BLENDED WITH GFS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.